Weather

664 
fxus61 kctp 280745 
afdctp 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service State College PA 
345 am EDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Synopsis... 
moisture from the remnants of old Tropical Storm Fay will bring a 
chance of rain through Thursday. Moderating temperatures will 
follow for the weekend as high pressure returns. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am this morning/... 
rainfall thus far over southwestern PA has been rather paltry. IFLOWS 
indicates only up to one quarter inch over southern Somerset Colorado. 
This area of the Laurel Highlands will continue to see the 
steadiest rain overnight...as moist sserly ll jet funnels moisture 
from ts Fay remnants into the southern alleghenies. 
However...unimpressive upstream radar trends lends confidence to 
the latest /21z/ sref data...which indicates only modest 
additional rainfall overnight of 0.5 inch or less across the 
alleghenies. Eastward progress of rain will be slow tonight...as 
cut off low east of new eng is keeping system at Bay. 


&& 


Short term /6 am this morning through Saturday night/... 
the anomalous southeast low level jet gradually turns more southerly in 
time Thursday which suggests the upslope component to the flow 
will relax and the chances for rain diminish in time. With the 
high in the position forecast by the models...it also suggests a cool 
air damming component to the flow so a rather cloudy-cool day is 
likely with the best chance of rains early in the day tapering to 
scattered showers which will likely linger into the evening. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/... 
ensembles advertise broad ridge setting up shop this weekend and 
does not show signs of departing until after mid-week. Sun 
morning will probably feature some morning fog and possibly again 
early Monday as well. 


Despite precipitation from a few days prior...boundary layer will quickly dry 
out from surface ridge. Expect surface heat capacity to remain low 
allowing afternoon temperatures to warm to near guidance possibly a degree or 
two above guidance...but remain seasonal. Dry weather holds in place 
through Wednesday at this time. 


&& 


Aviation /08z Thursday through Monday/... 
tropical remnants struggle to saturate boundary layer this 
morning...despite radar returns indicating numerous rain showers 
across the alleghenies. Most airfields remain at VFR 
conds...however expect that between 06-10z many sites will finally 
saturate the llvls and lower ceilings to around broken/overcast at or above 1-3kft 
above ground level...with guidance hinting at this criteria persisting through 00z 
Friday. Vcsh will give way to steadier rain showers...with periods of vsbsy 
be reduced to around MVFR tempo IFR mainly during nocturnal hours. 


Airfields will continue to see reduced ceilings/visibilities through Friday early 
Sat as an area of high pressure allows cooler moist boundary layer 
airmass to filter in from the east...before broad area of high 
pressure acros the Ohio River valley moves in for the middle weekend 
period brining VFR back for the remainder of the weekend. Sat night 
early sun will feature best chance for fog to dev...possibly bringing 
IFR/LIFR to numerous airfields before mixing out after sunrise. 


&& 


Ctp watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...lacorte 
near term...Fitzgerald 
short term...lacorte 
long term...beachler 
aviation...beachler