Weather

242 
fxus61 kbgm 280645 
afdbgm 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York 
245 am EDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Synopsis... 
the remnants of Fay will spread showers into extreme western 
portions of the central southern tier through this evening. 
Isolated showers may make it as far east as the Interstate 81 
corridor. A cold front will bring additional showers to New York and PA 
Friday and Friday night. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
models continue to drag moisture from Fay remnants back toward the 
ul trof, and Sat/radar depictions confirm this trend. We will 
bring scattered/hi chance probability of precipitation through Steuben County and portions of The 
Finger lakes. But mainly will stick to isolated showers along and 
west of 81, and dry to the east. 


&& 


Short term /Friday through Saturday night/... 
diffuse and unimpressive trough will push a cold front through 
upstate New York late Friday. With little instability to speak of, we 
will keep thunder out of the forecast and go with chance probability of precipitation for 
showers. 


The only fly in the ointment is the 0z model trend to hang some 
moisture back over the Catskills and Poconos early Saturday. This 
would keep a slight chance for a shower back through Delaware and 
Wayne counties. Otherwise conditions should rapidly improve by 
late morning Saturday. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/... 
several global models suggest the medium range pattern will be rather 
blocky across North America with a sharp trough/cutoff low over the 
Canadian Maritimes and a Sharp Ridge axis to our west. This places 
cny/nepa on the more favorable side of the situation...so to speak. 
This pattern suggests that high pressure... sunny and dry weather will be 
prolonged for most of the week with temperatures above normal by day 
and near normal by night. Looking at the latest 00z GFS thermal 
pattern would suggest nudging daytime temperatures up from previous forecast...and 
have done so with a blend of 00z gmos and 18z HPC forecasts. Very little 
change to other gridded fields such as sky/wind/wx. 


&& 


Aviation /07z Thursday through Monday/... 
VFR is expected through Thursday night. Kelm is likely to 
experience brief MVFR/IFR visibility and ceiling restriction early this 
morning...but forecast techniques do not show this to be one of those 
socked in events. Ceiling may be vlifr but visibility should stay up at 1-3 Michigan. 
Tropical moisture will then spread due north from current position 
along the Appalachian Mountains today and tonite. Ac/cirrus cloud cover will 
lower some at kelm...kith and kavp later today and tonight. Scattered 
light rain showers or sprinkles also possible from the ac deck but not worthy 
of a mention at this point due to lack of any flight restrcition. 


Outlook... 
Fri/Sat...VFR. Scattered MVFR rain showers. 
Sun/Mon...VFR. Possible IFR fog sun and Monday morning at kelm. 


&& 


Bgm watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...djp 
near term...djp 
short term...djp 
long term...jab 
aviation...jab