Weather

804 
fxus61 kphi 111841 
afdphi 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey 
241 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will dominate the weather through Wednesday. A cold 
front will then drop down from the northwest and cross the region 
Thursday. Cool Canadian high pressure will then build over the 
region Friday and Saturday. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
high pressure continues to dominate with clear skies and light 
winds. Dewpints remain mostly in the 40s except for some lower 50s 
in the southernmost areas where light NE winds from the ocean have 
kept the dewpoints a bit higher. Temperatures tonight should again 
drop mostly into the 40s. Only some isolated fog formed in the 
southern areas in response to higher dewpoints there yesterday. 
Today, they are not as high so I have left any mention of fog out 
of the forecast. 


&& 


Short term /Sunday through Monday night/... 
more dry weather with warm daytime highs and cool nighttime lows 
will continue. The upper ridge that has dominated will slowly 
retrograde allowing moisture at high levels /cirrus/ to move over 
the region. These high clouds should not be enough to degrade the 
forecast except for a mention of pc skies at night. 


The airmass continues to warm due to subsidence associated with 
the high as 800 mb temperatures get above plus 15 and 1000-850 thickness get 
above 1390 on Monday. Therefore, it will be warm both days with 
Monday being the warmest and many areas seeing 80 degrees. 
However, I did not go quite as warm as the mav guidance as cirrus 
should help limit the highs by a couple degrees. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/... 
the long term will start off warm, but by next weekend, 
temperatures will revert back to normal or even a bit below normal. 


The high continues to dominate for Tuesday with continued dry 
weather and mostly sunny skies. However, there should be enough 
cirrus clouds around to keep temperatures from getting as warm as Monday. 
Even so, highs will still be in the 70s. 


A cold front moves slowly through the area Wednesday night. Some 
showers might accompany the front north. A reinforcing cold front 
moves through on Thursday and this front should be followed by 
more seasonably cool air. 


Even with high pressure building back over the region Friday and 
Saturday, instability associated with cool air aloft could allow 
showers to still affect the area, but mostly north. 


HPC guidance temperatures were generally accepted. These were 
in better agreement with the 12z mex than they were with the 
previous run. 


&& 


Aviation /19z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
skies are expected to remain clear tonight and the north to northwest wind 
across the area will decrease around sunset. Overnight, nearly calm 
winds are expected and there may be some fog at kmiv and kacy, so it 
was left in there with a tempo group. VFR expected Sunday. 


Outlook...fair weather is expected to remain across the area through 
at least Tuesday. Morning fog may occur however. 


&& 


Marine... 
northeast winds across the waters will continue over the waters this 
evening and tonight as high pressure builds southward over the 
waters. Winds will be stronger over the southern coastal waters 
where the gradient will be a bit stronger. The high will settle over 
the waters Sunday and winds will become light into Monday. A S to SW 
flow will develop Monday night and last into Tuesday behind the 
high. Seas should remain in the 2 to 4 feet range through the period 
on the ocean. 


&& 


Phi watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New Jersey...none. 
Delaware...none. 
Maryland...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...stauber 
near term...stauber 
short term...stauber 
long term...stauber 
aviation...O'Hara 
marine...O'Hara