Weather

518 
fxus61 kctp 070718 
afdctp 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service State College PA 
318 am EDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
with the remnants of Tropical Storm Hanna moving east of southern 
New England this morning...a return to dry conditions is seen 
today and Monday as high pressure builds eastward. A cold front 
from the plains will scattered mainly afternoon showers and 
thunderstorms to the area on Tuesday. Another period of dry and 
cooler weather will follow for Wednesday and Thursday. 


&& 


Near term /until 11 am this morning/... 
drier air continues to filter southward across central 
Pennsylvania in the northwesterly flow behind exiting remnants of Tropical 
Storm Hanna. Scattered-broken clouds of varying heights are present across 
central PA in the predawn hours...as dewpoints continue to 
gradually fall into and through the 50s. Only scattered stratus is 
showing up in surface observation and infrared satellite imagery...with scattered-broken middle 
deck present as well. 


At the same time...a weakening surface front was increasing cloud 
cover over Northwest Ohio...a sign of things to come across 
northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania later this morning. All 
computer guidance indicates the best lift and forcing will remain 
well west and north of my forecast area...but there should be 
sufficient moisture and lift associated with the weakening 
boundary to keep slight chance probability of precipitation in across the northwest from 
later this morning through the afternoon. Elsewhere...a decent 
second half of the weekend will be salvaged with lower humidity 
and at least partial sunshine. 


&& 


Short term /11 am this morning through 6 PM Monday/... 
high pressure will build into the region later this afternoon... 
further weakening the boundary to our west and decreasing any probability of precipitation 
across the northwest by this evening. A good amount of sunshine 
is expected...especially central and eastern sections with near 
normal temperatures in the 70s and comfortably lower humidity. 


High pressure will remain the primary weather maker through Monday 
afternoon with partly to mostly sunny skies and temperatures near 
to slightly above normal. 


&& 


Long term /Monday night through Saturday/... 
a developing trough across the central and northern plains will 
push into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes Monday night. Srefs and 
numerical models indicate arrival of front Tuesday afternoon/evening with a 
good chance of showers and thunderstorms at that time. It appears 
boundary tries to layout west-east orientation...as t850 fall off to single 
digits above zero Wed/thur. Temperatures should cool down as a result and 
have adjusted middle week temperatures to reflect this. 


Next chance for precipitation at this time should arrive late week into the 
weekend...with yet another frontal boundary prognosticated to arrive 
Fri/Sat. 


&& 


Aviation /07z Sunday through Thursday/... 
Tropical Storm Hanna was near Long Island New York early this morning and 
will continue moving NE and away from the region overnight. Only 
remaining impact overnight will be some breezy conds across the 
lower suq valley airfields...with north-northwesterly winds 8-12kts with occasional gusts 
around 20kts. 


In the wake of Hanna a weak cold front has moved across and east 
of the region. Residual Post-frontal low level moisture ascending the 
alleghenies has resulted in areas of MVFR ceilings at many 
locs...which should improve to VFR ceilings/clear skies overnight. Any 
clearing overnight could promote the development of fog as winds 
die down. 


A weak frontal system associated with an upper air disturbance sliding through 
the lower Great Lakes will graze northwest PA this afternoon. No sig precipitation is expected 
at this time and have not included any mention in new taf pkg. 


VFR conds will prevail through Monday as high pressure builds in from the Ohio 
Valley. The high will move eastward over PA and off the middle Atlantic coast by 
Monday night. 


A cold front associated with a low pressure system moving northeastward from the Great Lakes 
and into the St Lawrence Valley is forecast to pass through the area on 
Tuesday...bringing with it scattered showers and thunderstorms. Hi 
pressure is expected to build in for for Wednesday through Friday 
accompanied by good flying conds. 


&& 


Ctp watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...devoir 
near term...devoir 
short term...devoir 
long term...beachler 
aviation...gartner/steinbugl