Weather

957 
fxus61 kcle 292331 
afdcle 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio 
731 PM EDT Friday Aug 29 2008 


Synopsis... 
a cold front over Northwest Ohio will move slowly east exiting 
eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania later tonight. High pressure 
will then build into the area for the weekend and into the middle 
of next week. 


&& 


Near term /through Saturday/... 
weak cold front extending through Northwest Ohio this afternoon. 
Radar showing a few showers just beginning to develop this 
afternoon near the front. Mesoscale analysis showing that it fairly 
unstable over western areas and would expect eastern areas to 
become little more unstable yet this afternoon and overcome a cap 
there. Will continue close to the previous forecast with 
chance/scattered showers and thunderstorms over the entire area 
early. Then taper off the chance of showers in the west this 
evening...and by midnight over the rest of the area except will 
hold onto low chance probability of precipitation far east throughout the night. Low 
temperatures middle 50s to around 60. 


&& 


Short term /Saturday night through Monday night/... 
expect front to be far enough east by Saturday morning that any 
lingering showers behind the front should be east of the area. 
However NAM and shref do show quantitative precipitation forecast far east Saturday morning. Then 
high pressure building in starting on Saturday. The high will then 
move east and be centered over the eastern Great Lakes on Sunday 
and Monday. Could be some lingering cloudiness in the east 
tomorrow morning...but then expect sunny skies for the rest of 
Saturday as well as Sunday and Monday as the high pressure remains 
in control. Went close to mav guidance temperatures with lows 
generally in the 50s Saturday night and Sunday. Highs in the upper 
70s and lower 80s tomorrow...and then around 80 or in the 80s for 
Sunday and Monday. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Friday/... 
high pressure will be in control of the weather through the end of 
next week. The large high moves east of the area Thursday but the 
upper ridge remains over the eastern lakes. European model (ecmwf) and ensemble a 
slower with the front at the end of the week...keeping it west of 
the area through the end of the week. The airmass is really dry on 
both models. At this time will keep it dry but it will have to be 
monitored. Leaned toward ensemble averages for temperatures. 


&& 


Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
weak cold front moving slowly east through the area caused a few 
thunderstorms to develop across the northern parts of the forecast 
area. Visibilities dropped to between 1/2 mile and 1 mile with the 
convective activity. Wind gusted to 30 to 35 knots. This activity 
will continue to move east across the rest of the forecast area 
this evening. Visibilities should be reduced to MVFR but ceilings 
should remain VFR with the thunderstorms. 


Clearing takes place behind the cold front this evening from west 
to east. I am anticipating that some stratus may form during the 
night along with some fog in the wake of the cold front from the 
residual rainfall that has fallen. Gradually improving conditions 
expected tomorrow with some scattered clouds at around 4000 feet. 


Outlook...high pressure will move over the area Saturday evening 
and remain through Monday. Expect VFR conditions through the 
remainder of the weekend. 


&& 


Marine... 
a cold front over the west tip of Lake Erie will move east across 
the remainder of the lake tonight. Fortunately there is not much of 
a punch behind this front and winds are not expected to increase too 
much. Winds by daybreak Sat should be from the NE at 10 to 15 knots 
or less. High pressure will build over the region for the Holiday 
weekend. Winds much of the period will be fairly light and 
variable. Temperatures on land will warm up so onshore flow is likely to 
develop on the nearshore waters during the day. The high will slide 
off to the east Monday into Tuesday so a southeast to S flow is expected to 
develop. Winds the entire period should be less than 15 knots with 
no advisories anticipated. 


&& 


Cle watches/warnings/advisories... 
Ohio...none. 
PA...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...randel 
near term...randel 
short term...randel 
long term...djb 
aviation...Lombardy 
marine...kubina