Weather

602 
fxus61 kpbz 061906 
afdpbz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 
306 PM EDT Monday Oct 6 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will maintain dry conditions through Tuesday night. 
An approaching front will bring a chance of rain showers by late 
Wednesday into Thursday. 


&& 


Near term /through Tuesday/... 
cloud cover expected to lessen through this evening as drier air 
moves into the upper Ohio Valley region. Surface ridge will 
maintain dry air though Tuesday. 


Temperatures will bottom out in the 30s tonight north and east of 
Pittsburgh...where frost advisory remains in effect late tonight 
and early Tuesday. Temperatures should rebound with plenty of sun 
Tuesday. Boosted maximum readings Tuesday afternoon with range from middle 
60s north and ridges...to lower 70s east central Ohio. 


&& 


Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday/... 
expect clouds to increase from the west Tuesday night as upper 
trough and accompanying surface low approaches region. Spread 
chance probability of precipitation for rain showers eastward across forecast area during 
Wednesday. 


Continued chance probability of precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday as southern 
end of upper trough cuts off and closed low moves into southeast 
states. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday night through Monday/... 
long term forecast is generally one of persistance as confidence 
in a decisive solution to the forecast is minimal. For now, will 
assume that projected cutoff low over the southeastern U.S. Will 
stay to the south as per European model solution...leaving a ridge 
of high pressure with a dry/warm weekend over the upper Ohio 
Valley following passage of the Thursday/Friday front. 


&& 


Aviation /19z Monday through Saturday/... 
VFR conditions may be expected through most of Wednesday as high 
pressures settles over central Pennsylvania. Only exceptions may 
be some localized restrictions due to fog on Tuesday morning for 
ports near the water sources. Wind will remain light into 
Wednesday, but will veer from the north northeast to east, then 
southeast by that time. Speed is then forecast to increase with a 
sustained 10 or 12 kts expected by Wednesday afternoon as the 
pressure gradient tightens in advance of midwestern low. 


That low will drag a weak front over the upper Ohio Valley with 
rain chances and restrictions possible for the close of the week. 


&& 


Pbz watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
Ohio...none. 
PA...frost advisory from 3 am to 9 am EDT Tuesday for paz007>009- 
013>016-022-023-030-032. 
WV...none. 


&& 


$$