Weather

336 
fxus61 kbgm 281905 
afdbgm 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York 
305 PM EDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Synopsis... 


Scattered showers will be over the region tonight and on Friday...as 
moisture associated with the remnants of Fay moves through the 
region. A cold front will pass the area on Friday night and 
Saturday morning with more showers. Improving conditions are 
expected by Saturday afternoon as high pressure builds into the 
area...and the fair weather will last through the middle of next 
week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/... 


Still some diffs in the guidance west/respect to eastward progress of 
-shra asscd with remnants of Fay. We are leaning towards a slow eastward 
translation of the precipitation tonight per GFS and local WRF run...but this is 
also hinted at in the NAM. Expect quantitative precipitation forecast to be on the light side. Mins 
gnrly in the 50s. Went with chance/likely probability of precipitation. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Friday morning through Sunday/... 


Interesting to note that temperatures this afternoon across much of SW New York and 
central PA are in the M/u50s where precipitation is occuring...and tmrw's maximum 
temperatures forecast across the bgm County Warning Area will be a challenge. We are leaning 
towards the cooler mav guidance which appears to have a good handle 
on this. Don't beleive that -shra will be as persistent or widespread 
as what we observed today to our west and south...for now we're fcstng 
maxes in the M/u 60s for much of NE PA and the western 
Catskills...with a gradient to m70s over the central southern tier and 
Finger Lakes. Expect scattered -shra...especially across eastern zones in the morning. 
We could see a break in the scattered -shra tmrw afternoon when western zones 
could see a few breaks of sunshine. Cold front aprchs tmrw night...with 
some timing diffs for Sat. We blended the NAM/GFS solutions which 
suggests a chance for -shra mainly in the morning...although some activity 
could linger across far southeast zones into Sat afternoon. Stability params 
continue to suggest only -shra...although slight chance for thunderstorms and rain Sat afternoon 
far southeast zones vicinity of departing frontal boundary. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday night through Wednesday/... 


Very quiet weather pattern for Sunday through Wednesday... with high 
pressure at the surface and aloft. Stayed close to HPC guidance... 
giving highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s to around 60. Dry 
weather will persist through this period. 


&& 


Aviation /19z Thursday through Tuesday/... 


Wide band of light rain showers will slowly move east across the 
area late today through Friday morning. Rain will be light with 
mainly VFR conditions persisting. Light showers will remain mainly 
south of syr/rme... but should result in at least a few hours of 
light rain at bgm/avp/ith... and several hours of light rain at Elm. 
Showers will be mainly east of the taf sites by middle morning 
Friday... with VFR conditions continuing. A few showers will move 
across the area Friday night with scattered MVFR conditions possible. 


Outlook... 
Sat... scattered MVFR conditions possible Saturday morning with showers... 
then VFR with clearing during the afternoon. 
Sun/Mon/Tue...VFR. Possible IFR fog sun... Monday and Tuesday morning 
at Elm. 


&& 


Bgm watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Long term...jab 
aviation...jab