Weather

056 
fxus66 kmfr 071102 
afdmfr 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Medford or 
402 am PDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Short term... 
offshore flow has weakened this morning versus 24 hours ago...with 
flow along the Curry County coast less offshore...but not enough 
to end the Brookings effect. In the Brookings area at this time 
automated observations indicate 75 degrees at the 459 foot 
elevation Airport...but only 52 degrees at the 79 foot elevation 
agrimet site. Meanwhile...north-northwest winds of 28 miles per hour are 
being indicated at Gold Beach. These observations ultimately 
underscore the challenge of Curry County coastal temperatures today 
and the subtleties of the Brookings effect. 


The bottom line for the forecast today is that conditions will be 
very similar to Saturday at most locations...though a little 
cooler at the coast and a bit warmer inland. Still appears 
offshore flow is strong enough for another day...or even two...in 
the 90s at the Brookings Airport. Inland most areas will again be 
in the 80s and 90s...with smokey 100s in the Klamath River canyon 
at and south of Happy Camp. With weaker offshore flow today but 
continued dry offshore flow conditions at most locations...expect 
valley winds to tend to be a little more terrain driven than 
yesterday. 


On Monday the thermal trough will weaken a little at the 
coast...with a slight cool down over northwest sections and a 
slight warm up on the east side as the thermal trough bubbles out 
the northeast ahead of an upper level shortwave trough approaching 
the area. This will likely result in a little more wind Monday 
afternoon and evening over the east side...but nothing out of the 
Ordinary. 


Monday night into Tuesday the upper trough will push a cooler 
airmass in from the northwest...with temperature drops of 5 to 15 
degrees across most of the forecast area. Trended cooler and 
closer to guidance for highs Tuesday than the previous 
forecast...but still a bit warmer than the model guidance depicts 
for most areas. Ultimately...this cooler airmass should yield a 
reprieve from the warm daytime temperatures that we've been 
experiencing of late for Tuesday and Wednesday...along with a 
little more wind in areas that experience much of their normal 
winds from the north and northwest such as the Rogue Valley...and 
much of the east side. Cold temperatures overnight will yield some 
frosty conditions east side and temperatures below freezing in some 
of the mountains. Low clouds and fog will intrude Coos and 
Douglas counties Tuesday and Wednesday night...possibly affecting 
Roseburg. Btl 


Long term... 
beyond Tuesday there is little change expected in the forecast. 
Offshore flow at night will yield cool to cold overnight lows for 
many inland areas and warm daytime temperatures. Previous model 
guidance suggested another cool down for Saturday...but this is 
less pronounced to non-existent in the latest guidance. Expect 
that overnight lows will be near normal through next weekend with 
daytime temperatures several degrees above normal as seasonably 
dry conditions prevail. Btl 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions prevail and will continue to prevail across 
the forecast area this morning...except along the coast from about 
Cape Blanco northward...mainly in coastal Douglas and Coos 
counties...where IFR conditions exist. These IFR conditions will 
likely continue through about 11 am PDT this morning. North Bend 
Airport may briefly drop to a quarter of a mile or less before 9 
am PDT. Low clouds and fog along and near the coast in the same 
areas as this morning will be more short lived tonight. Model 
guidance suggests isolated IFR this evening...then improving 
overnight as drier air pushes in from offshore. Localized IFR fog 
near North Bend will be possible due to local effects Monday 
morning...however. Lutz 


&& 


Mfr watches/warnings/advisories... 
or...none. 


California...none. 


Pacific coastal waters...Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening 
for pzz356-pzz376. 
Hazardous seas warning until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for pzz356. 
Small Craft Advisory for winds until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for 
pzz350-pzz370. 
Hazardous seas warning until 11 PM PDT Monday for pzz370. 
Hazardous seas warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for pzz376. 
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 9 PM PDT Tuesday 
for pzz350. 


$$ 


Btl