Weather

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK 
354 am CDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Discussion... 
our seemingly routine round of early morning thunderstorms is once 
again rumbling across parts of northern Oklahoma. Locally heavy 
rainfall has been occurring in several areas with the mesonet 
indicating over 3 inches of rainfall in Noble County. We should 
see the convection decrease during the morning hours as the low 
level jet and attendant warm advection pattern weaken. For later 
in the day we will keep in a slight chance for storms across 
about the northern half of the area for the possibility of a few 
storms developing in the vicinity of the northward retreating 
front/outflow boundary. 


It appears that another repeat of late night warm advection- 
induced thunderstorms in northern Oklahoma tonight will be less 
likely as the 850 mb thermal gradient will be shifting north of 
the area. This should likewise shift the stronger warm advection 
pattern...and most of the storms... farther north into Kansas. 
However... we will keep in some low probability of precipitation across the north to 
account for the possibility of a few storms straggling the border. 
We also could see a few storms in the area associated with an 
upper wave moving across northwest Texas and into northwest 
Oklahoma. 


We will mention low probability of precipitation for Monday and Monday night as a cold 
front moves back south through the area in response to a 
moderately strong short wave moving through the Central Plains. 
Most of the activity should move out of the area by early Tuesday. 
The GFS Post-frontal winds appear too light for Monday afternoon 
across the northwest and thus have trended wind speeds towards the 
higher speeds shown by the NAM. 


A fairly rapid moisture return occurs over the SW half of the area on 
Wednesday as south winds return. Meanwhile... weak waves embedded 
in southwesterly flow aloft may help to initiate a few showers and T-storms 
over the area by Wednesday afternoon... with a few storms possibly 
lingering in the north Wednesday night. The GFS continues to 
indicate a signal for a few showers/T-storms over the area 
Thursday through Saturday as a series of weak waves move up from 
the southwest. 


As for temperatures... we will lower the highs for today across 
the north due to delayed heating caused by extensive cloud cover 
over the area... in addition to the rain in north central 
sections. Meanwhile... the highs for Tuesday were bumped up across 
central/northern Oklahoma on Monday ahead of the cold front. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Oklahoma City OK 85 67 87 60 / 20 0 10 20 
Hobart OK 87 68 89 60 / 10 0 20 20 
Wichita Falls Texas 93 70 91 65 / 0 0 10 20 
gage OK 84 61 82 50 / 20 20 20 10 
Ponca City OK 78 65 85 57 / 50 20 30 20 
Durant OK 89 67 88 67 / 0 0 10 20 


&& 


Oun watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


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