Weather

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK 
1003 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2008 


Discussion... 
showers have tried to bubble up along the cold front and trough 
extending northeast to southwest across the area this evening... 
but have not been able to persist. Elevated echoes are now 
developing across southwest Kansas and north central Oklahoma in 
what should be the main precipitation show this evening. The warm 
advection on the 850 mb plane or the prognosticated isentropic lift and 
moisture availability on the 300k isentropic surface point more 
toward northern Oklahoma for precipitation tonight. At this 
time... the current forecast looks in good shape with this 
scenario. Will not update the forecast this evening... but will 
keep an eye on the attempted convection along the front to make 
sure probability of precipitation do not need to be expanded south. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 237 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2008/ 


Discussion... 
wavy front across Texas Panhandle into OK will be a main player next 
couple days as it drifts back and forth across the area. Initial 
concern is potential for surface-based storms on or near the front 
this afternoon/evening. SBCAPE near or over 2000 j/kg in central 
OK with 0-6km shear running 30-50kt. Cumulus field increasing from 
central OK into our Texas zones. Satellite and morning upper air analyses 
indicate an impulse moving out of the Central High plains. Main 
concern will be central/ncentral OK where a couple high-profile 
outdoor events will be occurring. Later tonight... strengthening 
low level jet north of surface boundary likely to lead to nocturnal elevated 
convection mainly north OK. Have upped the probability of precipitation to Above All MOS 
guidance... which has underestimated coverage last couple nights. 
Front forecast to drift S tonight and then meander across the area 
Sunday before lifting north Sunday night in response to upper trough 
digging into north rockies. Front then forecast to drop S through the 
area late Monday and Monday night followed by cooler/drier air 
mass. Low probability of precipitation will be maintained until the front clears the area 
late Monday night or early Tuesday. Brisk north-NE winds and drier air 
likely to produce some decidedly fall-like conditions by Tuesday 
morning. 


After some recovery of temperatures through midweek... another 
trough moves into the Central Plains/Midwest around Thursday. Another 
cold front prognosticated through the area at that time with an attendant 
chance of precipitation... followed by cooler conditions. Have raised 
GFS-MOS probability of precipitation and lowered the highs behind thursday's front to 
better match surrounding grids. 24 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Oklahoma City OK 63 86 68 87 / 20 10 10 10 
Hobart OK 65 91 69 88 / 10 10 10 10 
Wichita Falls Texas 67 94 70 91 / 10 0 0 10 
gage OK 56 82 64 80 / 30 20 20 30 
Ponca City OK 61 81 67 85 / 60 20 20 30 
Durant OK 64 89 68 88 / 10 0 0 10 


&& 


Oun watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$