Weather

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK 
915 PM CDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Discussion... 
based on radar reflectivity and surface observations... it appears 
that the cold front is now just a few miles into northwest 
Oklahoma... extending from south of Wichita Kansas... to near 
Buffalo Oklahoma... and on west and southwest into the Texas 
Panhandle and New Mexico. A few showers and perhaps thunderstorms 
will continue to be possible along this front as it continues to 
advance south overnight. Models suggest that its southernmost 
extent will be from near Ponca City and Enid to near Cheyenne in 
west-central Oklahoma. Despite the low-level convergence... 
instability and shear are weak. As a result... our 20 percent 
probability of precipitation still seem reasonable across the nrothwest half of our 
forecast area. 


We may be able to drop probability of precipitation later in our southwest counties... but 
with weak - below precipitation level - echoes remaining in that 
area... will hold off for a bit. 


All other aspects of the forecast look good at this point... so 
there are no plans to make any other changes to the forecast at 
this time. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 306 PM CDT Thursday Aug 28 2008/ 


Discussion... 
daily showers and thunderstorms are again developing this 
afternoon... at the moment just west of the County Warning Area. Laps analysis 
shows some instability and lack of inhibition over much of the 
area. But satellite shows the best cumulus development southwest so 
far so at the moment have focused the low probability of precipitation in the west in this 
area and in the north in closer proximity to the surface front. 
But will keep open the option of adjusting probability of precipitation before zone time 
based on satellite and radar trends. 


The cold front in Kansas and the northwestern panhandles 
continues to make slow progress southeast. There are some good 
north winds from Cimarron County Oklahoma up toward Hays Kansas 
today behind the front... and winds at Guymon and Liberal have 
swung northwest over the past couple of hours. The models expect 
somewhat slower progress overnight as the shortwave in the 
northern plains moves east. Slight precipitation chances are warranted 
with the front moving into northern Oklahoma tonight... but the 
NGM is the only model getting very excited about precipitation 
chances. Will keep some slight chance probability of precipitation in despite the single 
digit mav and met numbers... but at this time do not see enough 
forcing to justify the higher probability of precipitation that FWC gives. 


Precipitation chances remain relatively low the next few days with 
ridging in the upper pattern. With a surface boundary nearby... 
will continue to watch for areas where any precipitation chances 
might be increased in any particular period but uncertainty on 
specific location of the boundary precludes any higher probability of precipitation than 
slight chance. 


Toward the end of the extended periods... will have to watch the 
course of Gustav as European model (ecmwf) brings the remnant circulation into 
Oklahoma middle week. Have increased probability of precipitation Wednesday and Thursday with 
the possibility of this scenario and another front moving into the 
area from the north. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Oklahoma City OK 72 97 71 95 / 10 20 20 10 
Hobart OK 73 98 72 97 / 20 20 20 10 
Wichita Falls Texas 74 99 73 97 / 10 20 20 20 
gage OK 67 92 66 92 / 20 20 20 10 
Ponca City OK 71 94 72 92 / 20 20 20 10 
Durant OK 70 97 72 93 / 10 10 20 20 


&& 


Oun watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


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