Weather

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK 
1205 am CDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Aviation... 


Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Surface 
winds will remain strong through the period. Moisture moving north 
from Hurricane Norbert will result in increasing middle/high level 
clouds late tonight into Saturday. 
02 


&& 


Update... /issued 1027 PM CDT Friday Oct 10 2008/ 


High clouds will increase across the western half of the forecast area 
during the second half of the night. Otherwise southerly winds 
will remain rather strong under 35-45 knots jet tonight. Raised lows 
across southwest quarter a few degrees otherwise forecast look 
good. 


&& 


Six 


Previous discussion... /issued 231 PM CDT Friday Oct 10 2008/ 


Discussion... 
still main topic of discussion is large storm system to affect the 
area over the weekend into next week. 


Until this system arrives next few days will continue to be warm and 
windy with increasing cloud cover. Initially it appears that middle and 
high level moisture from Hurricane Norbert will begin to stream 
north across the area on Saturday... but should have minimal impact 
other than to increase clouds. Models continue to be in fairly good 
agreement with how they handle upper low this weekend. All show 
strong wave rotating around main low center and ejecting north on 
Sunday. This should keep much of the precipitation just west and north of 
much of Oklahoma. Will maintain higher probability of precipitation across far west and 
northwest... but will slow the eastward progression of precipitation sun 
into Monday. This may keep most of the heavier precipitation out of the area. 
Although far northwest may still need to be watched. Once system 
begins to move across it may be just fast enough to keep precipitation 
amounts lower. 


Will maintain timing of frontal passage across the area on Monday 
with much of the precipitation by this time being Post-frontal in nature. 
Will maintain some probability of precipitation into Wednesday as this is where more uncertainty 
lies wit larger model differences... especially with respect to how much of the 
energy from initial low gets left behind and what affect that may 
have on how far south and how quickly the surface boundary move through 
and how quickly drier cooler surface highs build south. 


European model (ecmwf) shows a reinforcing shot of cooler air filtering south behind 
another surface front late in the week. Will put some low probability of precipitation in late 
Thursday for this. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Oklahoma City OK 63 84 66 82 / 0 10 10 20 
Hobart OK 63 84 63 82 / 0 10 20 40 
Wichita Falls Texas 65 86 68 88 / 0 10 10 20 
gage OK 60 79 66 75 / 0 30 50 50 
Ponca City OK 62 83 66 86 / 0 10 10 20 
Durant OK 62 83 65 82 / 0 10 0 0 


&& 


Oun watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$