Weather

399 
fxus61 kcle 280802 
afdcle 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio 
402 am EDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Synopsis... 
the remnants of Fay will continue to move northeast through the 
eastern Ohio Valley region and then weaken today. Low pressure 
will move east across the southern Great Lakes region Friday and 
its associated cold front will move through the region. High 
pressure will build east across the region into the Holiday 
weekend. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
upper low moving north over the area this morning and then trying to 
lift out to the northeast later today. The models are trying to 
indicate because of the moisture and Omega that the precipitation 
will be enhancing over the extreme eastern portion of the forecast 
area early this morning. This has not happened yet. Will keep the 
probability of precipitation around 50 percent in the extreme east and word it areas of 
rain. Elsewhere chance of rain...mainly light...could be drizzle 
like in the mfd area. The air is drying aloft but with the upper 
trough still in the area this afternoon will keep the chance through 
the afternoon from cle east and in the mfd area just this am. Will 
keep most areas cloudy today but the extreme western portion of the 
forecast area becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. The guidance 
temperatures seem way too warm especially in the east where it will 
be cloudy. Will be going closer to the hourly lav numbers. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday night/... 
the low clouds will be moving out and then the clouds associated 
with the cold front will begin moving in tonight. Some light rain 
could linger in the extreme east especially early. The models are 
not in exact agreement with the moisture associated with the front. 
Some thunderstorms/showers could be hanging together well after 
midnight as they approach Northwest Ohio...thus will have a 30 pop 
in the extreme northwest. On Friday it is tough with the front 
trying to move through somewhat quickly...kept the probability of precipitation 
40%...whether they should really be 30...but none the less there is 
a chance. With the front moving through early not anticipating any 
severe weather...however...the best chances would be in the east 
where the fornt will move through later in the day. It is 
possible that some showers could linger in the extreme east early 
Friday night. Otherwise decreasing clouds. High pressure will be 
building in. Some clouds could linger in the extreme east early 
Saturday but otherwise mostly sunny. 


Temperatures not clear cut. Went with the cooler met with some 
breaks in the clouds and highs not that warm today...had to go a 
little cooler...closer to the gridded MOS. With clouds associated 
with the front the guidance highs look good...except a little too 
warm Northwest Ohio. On Saturday with a northeast flow the met 
numbers seem too high...went closer to the mav. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/... 
surface and upper level high pressure should control the weather 
Sunday through Wednesday. Some concern about a frontal system moving 
into the area. The front seems to hang up. The European model (ecmwf) is much 
slower with this feature and keeps the front to the west. At this 
time will keep the forecast dry. Guidance temperatures look 
OK...went a little cooler for Sunday because of the northeast 
flow...even though it will be light. 




&& 


Aviation /08z Thursday through Monday/... 
remnants of Fay continue to impact the area this morning. Rain 
confined more to eastern sites this morning. For tafs...quite a 
variation from west to east forecast wise. For tol and fdy this 
morning went with predominate MVFR with some tempo IFR. 
However...expecting western sites to be quite variable over the 
next 6-8 hours with sites at times bouncing around with scattered low 
ceilings at times. Despite that...went with mainly MVFR with IFR 
conditions at times. Guidance showing out west ceilings will 
continue to remain low through much of the day...but clear skies 
less than 50 miles away to the west thinking that time of year 
will allow ceilings to slowly dissipate especially after 18z. 


Forecast becomes trickier further east. For mfd do not see reason 
for improvement at mfd with better probability of conditions 
deteriorating even further towards daybreak. Trended in same 
directions at cak. Cle is a bit more difficult with downsloping southeast 
wind being more of an influence. With that mentioned predominate 
IFR towards daybreak expecting winds to be a bit more easterly...but 
then broke out into low MVFR shortly after about 14z with winds 
shifting a bit more southeast. For yng downsloping has helped things 
there until most recently...but see little room for improvement 
through much of the day today not until late. Southeast flow to prevail 
there allowing MVFR conditions to be somewhat difficult to come 
by. With that only mention MVFR through morning hours...then 
improving in afternoon. 


Outlook...any improvement to VFR late this evening in west will be 
short lived with MVFR returning. Eastern sites except eri 
continuing mainly MVFR with patchy VFR improvements. Possible MVFR 
Friday with cold front and br Friday night. VFR Sat through Monday. 


&& 


Marine... 
remnants of Fay continue to influence the area with clouds and rain. 
Rain this morning will be most widespread across the lake mainly 
east of Cleveland...then diminish this afternoon. For today mainly 
southeast flow 10-20kt with waves generally 1-3ft. Winds turn 
gradually towards south Thursday night and Friday ahead of approaching 
cold front. Winds and waves may briefly pick up on Friday with cold 
frontal passage but high pressure quickly builds in Friday night. 
High pressure builds in allowing for light winds and waves through 
Monday. 


&& 


Cle watches/warnings/advisories... 
Ohio...none. 
PA...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...kieltyka 
near term...kieltyka 
short term...kieltyka 
long term...kieltyka 
aviation...Abe 
marine...Abe