Weather

052 
fxus63 kiwx 101936 
afdiwx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service northern Indiana 
336 PM EDT Friday Oct 10 2008 


Short term... 
..tonight through Saturday night... 
Quiet weather to continue in the short term. Surface high 
pressure centered just to our east and unseasonably strong middle 
level ridge building across Great Lakes as strong upper low 
develops across western Continental U.S.. ridging to remain in place through 
this period. Lows tonight should not be as cool as last night but 
will still shave a few degrees off of lowest guidance given very 
dry atmosphere and decoupling along with time of year. Afternoon 
dewpoints still in the 30s with some 20s across the region. 


Quick recovery on Saturday with dry atmosphere and mixing leading to 
highs well above normal and into upper 70s to around 80 across the 
south. Lows Saturday night should be a little warmer as well and 
remain in the 50s. 


&& 


Long term... 
Sunday through Friday...the upper air pattern will be highly 
amplified early Sunday as a deep upper low over the western Continental U.S. 
Begins to lift northeast toward southern Canada. Downstream of 
this low...an upper level ridge will have built from the Ohio 
River to the western Great Lakes regions. Temperatures in the 
proximity of this ridge should be quite warm...and may rise to 
within a degree or two of record highs Sunday over northern 
Indiana. Favor the warmer operational mex numbers over the cooler 
mex ensembles given this pattern. The GFS general trend the last 
several days has been to be slower with the arrival of the front. 
Conditions should remain very mild for this time of year until the 
front passes Tuesday or possibly Tuesday night. For this package... 
kept a chance for showers and storms in Tuesday and a chance for 
showers Tuesday night. GFS cape values were not very impressive. 
After Tuesday...model confidence is extremely low handling the 
evolution of the upper air pattern during the second half of the 
week as evidence in the spread of the ensembles. Therefore...kept 
conditions dry with temperatures near normal. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 151 PM EDT Friday Oct 10 2008/ 


Aviation... 


VFR through period with surface pressure gradient tight enough to keep 
winds by the way 5-10kts overnight and preclude anything more than patchy 
gd fog near daybreak. 




&& 


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories... 
in...none. 
Michigan...none. 
Ohio...none. 
Lm...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...Lashley 
long term...skipper 
aviation...Lashley