Weather

958 
fxus61 Kiln 280541 
afdiln 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio 
141 am EDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Synopsis... 
the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay will continue to lift slowly 
off to the northeast through tonight. High pressure will begin to 
build into the region Thursday into Thursday night. A cold front 
will move through the area on Friday...bringing the next chance 
for thunderstorms. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am this morning/... 
more widespread precipitation associated with Fay remnants has lifted off to 
the north and east of our County Warning Area. However...nice deformation axis is 
evident on satellite and radar stretching back southwest across 
our area into southeast Indiana/northern Kentucky. Fairly 
widespread drizzle/light rain showers have been occurring with this 
through this afternoon across our forecast area and expect this to continue 
through at least this evening. In fact...the models even indicate 
this deformation axis shifting slightly back to the west through 
the overnight hours...so would not be surprise to see some drizzle 
linger through most of the night. Wording is a little difficult as 
chance for measurable precipitation is fairly low but think drizzle could be 
more widespread. Will therefore generally go with some kind of 
areas of drizzle with a slight chance or chance of showers 
wording. Will go a little warmer than guidance for lows tonight 
as clouds should also remain fairly solid. 


Updated forecast to lower probability of precipitation somewhat...though isolated showers 
and drizzle may still occur. 


&& 


Short term /6 am this morning through Friday night/... 
deformation axis forecast to slowly weaken through the day on 
Thursday as 800 mb thermal trough begins to shift off to the east. Until 
this happens though....think we may see a few showers linger into 
the day...especially across the eastern portions of the forecast area. Will 
therefore keep a 20 pop going across th east into Thursday 
afternoon and go a little more pessimistic on the sky cover. High 
pressure will build briefly into the area Thursday night before cold 
front pushes in from the northwest on Friday. The 12z GFS is 
faster with the front than the 12z European model (ecmwf) and NAM-WRF. Will lean 
toward the slower solutions and bring a chance of thunderstorms in 
for Friday and then hang on to a slight chance into Friday 
evening. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/... 
high pressure builds in behind the front on Saturday. This feature 
will remain nearly stationary across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes 
through early next week as a deep ridge builds in overhead. 
This will keep the extended forecast dry through Tuesday. GFS and 
European model (ecmwf) both have slowed down the progression of the front next 
week...delaying its passage into the Ohio Valley to at least 
Wednesday. Therefore delayed probability of precipitation until Wednesday and increased 
temperatures early next week. 


&& 


Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/... 
LIFR ceilings have developed except in the Cincinnati area and 
those terminals should see these low ceilings within the next few 
hours. After 13z there will be a slow improvement in ceilings 
through the day with conditions getting better in the western 
areas earliest with this improvement then progressing eastward. 
Some mist/fog will then begin to develop after 00z. 


Outlook...MVFR/IFR visibilities are possible late Thursday night. 
Thunderstorms are possible Friday into Friday evening. 


&& 


Iln watches/warnings/advisories... 
Ohio...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
In...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...jgl 
near term...coniglio/jgl 
short term...jgl 
long term...hawblitzel 
aviation...