Weather

823 
fxus61 kcle 110720 
afdcle 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio 
320 am EDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Synopsis... 
a ridge of high pressure will remain over the eastern Great Lakes 
through the weekend and then weaken early in the work week as a 
cold front moves through Tuesday and Tuesday night. 


&& 


Near term /through today/... 
could be a little cirrus today...it will be thin so mostly sunny 
looks good. The models are a little different on the 850 mb 
temperatures. The flow will be easterly so the influence from the 
lake will be mainly at locations near Lake Erie in the Northwest Ohio 
area. For Friday the met did the best except the mav did better 
over northwest PA. The gridded MOS numbers looked good they are 
kind of a mix between the met and the mav and using local schemes 
they seem good. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through Tuesday night/... 
dry weather through Monday night. Little clouds through Monday. 
Monday night the GFS and to some extent the European model (ecmwf) starts bringing in 
the clouds from the cold front. 


Light winds and clear skies tonight...went with the cooler 
guidance. For Sunday with the 850 mb temperature of 17c from the 
NAM and GFS went the same or a little warmer then the MOS mav. 
Could be a lake breeze especially just a few miles from the lake. 
For Sunday night and Monday went close to the gridded MOS they 
seem reasonable. A little milder for Monday night with an increasing 
pressure gradient and may be some clouds. 


For Tuesday and Tuesday night a threat of showers and thunderstorms 
with the front moving through...some timing issues...the ooz ecwmf 
is now about the same as the GFS and the NAM is the fastest. Kept 
the probability of precipitation more in the 30 range both time periods with some 
questions especially if it will rain on Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday tough 
if the GFS and European model (ecmwf) are correct and the clouds are in early the 
highs will be cooler than what the NAM thinks...went closer to the 
GFS. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday through Friday/... 
models diverge some on solution for Wednesday through Friday time frame with 
GFS pushing frontal moisture east of area by Wednesday while European model (ecmwf) hangs 
it back over our area. For continuity won't change much in long 
range forecast at this time and let day shift see if more agreement 
develop between the models on a solution. 


&& 


Aviation /07z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
high pressure over New York and PA will continue to influence our area 
with dry conditions and VFR. Outside chance for a little ground fog 
toward daybreak at yng but feel probability low enough to keep out 
of taf. 


Outlook...primarily VFR through period. Next possible impacting 
weather feature will be a cold front expected during Wednesday/Wednesday night 
period. 


&& 


Marine... 
high pressure east of the lake should provide an east wind of about 
10 to 15 knots today veering to southeast tonight with a decrease to mostly 
10 knots and under. Flow will turn more south sun into Monday with an 
increase in speed to about 10 to 20 knots late Monday night becoming 
SW 15 to 20 knots Tuesday ahead of a cold front that is expected to 
cross the lake Tuesday night. Flow should be mainly west on Wednesday at 
about 10 to 20 knots which should result in about 2 to 4 foot 
waves. However there is some difference in strength and timing of 
the cold front between the GFS and European model (ecmwf) so confidence in forecast 
for Tuesday and Wednesday considerably lower. 


&& 


Cle watches/warnings/advisories... 
Ohio...none. 
PA...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...kieltyka 
near term...kieltyka 
short term...kieltyka 
long term...Adams 
aviation...Adams 
marine...Adams