Weather

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Buffalo New York 
324 PM EDT Friday Oct 10 2008 


Synopsis... 
a large area of high pressure will bring an extended period of 
very comfortable dry and sunny weather to the region just in time 
for the Columbus day weekend. Temperatures will climb to well 
above average as well with a taste of Indian Summer for the 
weekend into early next week. The next chance of rain will not 
arrive until Tuesday when a weak front crosses the region. 


&& 


Near term /through Saturday/... 
high pressure ridged from the central Great Lakes to western 
Pennsylvania will drift slowly east tonight and Saturday...reaching 
eastern New York by Saturday evening. This will result in quiet 
weather through the period...with generally clear skies only being 
marred by a little fog in the southern tier valleys tonight...and a 
little cirrus-level cloudiness on Saturday. 


With light winds tonight...our low temperatures tonight should be at 
least a few degrees cooler compared to what we experienced this 
morning...generally falling into the middle and upper 30s in the 
southern tier valleys and across areas east of Lake Ontario...with 
lower 40s found across the rest of the area. This will be followed 
by idyllic conditions on Saturday...as the combination of full 
sun...light winds...and 850 temperatures of +10c to +14c will allow 
temperatures to climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s...or a solid 5 
to 10 degrees above seasonal normals for middle October. 


&& 


Short term /Saturday night through Monday/... 
Saturday will be the perfect fall day for the region with plenty of 
sunshine and very comfortable temperatures as well as light winds 
across our region. With 850mb temperatures of +12 to +14 the maximum temperatures 
should make it well into the 70s. Saturday night will be clear as 
well and Sunday looks great too. We had feared that a weak back door 
cold front might bring some cloud cover and somewhat cooler temperatures to 
the area but the models do not show that scenario any more, so enjoy 
what promises to be the best weekend of the fall so far. 


In fact Monday also looks great as the ridge stay in control of our 
weather and keeps any precipitation and even cloud cover out of our 
region. 


&& 


Long term /Monday night through Friday/... 
northern hemispheric water vapor imagery this afternoon shows deep 
polar vortex moving into the Gulf of Alaska and that will be the 
feature that eventually kicks the closed low over the western US 
eastward. That will bring an end to the warm temperatures and dry 
conditions we will experience through early Tuesday. The suite of 
model guidance is having a tough time agreeing on the amount and 
timing of the energy it wants to eject out of the western US low. 
As a result there are signifianct differences in the timing of the 
surface weather features and precipitation across our neck of the 
Woods into middle week. Therefore not as much confidence in the 
timing and extent of the precipitation forecast for middle week. 


Finally, although its well out into the extended portion of the 
forecast, that alaskan polar vortex I originally mentioned may bring 
a significant shot of colder air across the Great Lakes next 
weekend. Stay tuned. 


&& 


Aviation /20z Friday through Wednesday/... 
high pressure ridging into the lower Great Lakes will maintain ideal 
flying conditions through the taf period...with the bulk of the area 
experiencing unlimited ceilings/visibilities and light winds throughout. The 
lone exception to this will be in the southern tier valleys late 
tonight and early Saturday morning...where the usual valley fog will 
form and produce localized reductions to IFR. 


Outlook... 
Saturday night through Wednesday...generally VFR...except for 
typical late night/early morning valley fog in the southern tier. 


&& 


Marine... 
looks like excellent boating conditions for the long Holiday weekend 
with high pressure providing fair skies and very light winds with 
flat wave action. For sailors...there will not be much wind at all 
to work with. Enjoy waht promises to be a great fall weekend. 


&& 


Buf watches/warnings/advisories... 
New York...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...tan 
near term...jjr 
short term...tan 
long term...tan 
aviation...jjr 
marine...tan