Weather

734 
fxus61 kbgm 052333 
afdbgm 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York 
633 PM EST Monday Jan 5 2009 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will provide dry weather through much of Tuesday. 
Tuesday night and Wednesday, a storm system will advance out of 
the Ohio Valley, spreading mixed precipitation into New York and 
Pennsylvania. Behind this system, a northwest flow of much colder 
air along with lake effect snow showers will persist through late 
week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/... 
a quiet period as surface high pressure slides east from the Ohio Valley 
into eastern PA by morning. Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies 
expected overnight with temperatures in the teens. 


Across northern Oneida County low level flow will be favorable for les 
through at least midnight with several inches possible. After 
midnight lowering el will weaken activity. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday/... 
Tuesday...day will start partly sunny then become cloudy by 
afternoon as system approaches from the southeast. Will continue with just 
chance probability of precipitation for southern portion of forecast area. 


Tuesday night/Wednesday...models continue to show significant 
differences with evolution of complex system impacting region 
through this period. GFS much stronger with primary, westward low, 
than NAM before coastal low deepens Wednesday evening. This would 
imply a warmer middle level thermal profile than the NAM. European model (ecmwf) also 
leans toward this solution and indicates warmer temperatures at 850 mb than 
GFS. Based on recent track record, pattern recognition and winter 
thus far leaned toward the warmer GFS/European model (ecmwf) solution which 
indicates mixed precipitation across much of forecast area. Only area where warning 
criteria snow is a concern would be Oneida/Madison/Otsego and 
Delaware counties. Issued a Winter Storm Watch here Tuesday night 
and Wednesday. Rest of area, winter weather advisories will cover 
situation with several inches of snow, 2-4 inches, followed by 
icing up to a quarter of an inch. 


Wednesday night...as coastal low deepens rapidly, cold air advection will change 
all remaining precipitation to snow showers. Will continue with likely 
probability of precipitation most of forecast area due to wrap around moisture, cyclonic flow and 
upper level trough. Most places will see an inch or two. 


Lake effect snow through Wednesday night will remain primarily 
north of County Warning Area. 


Thursday...area in upper level trough with deep cyclonic flow and 
plenty of wrap around moisture. Scattered snow showers for much of 
the area with likely probability of precipitation northern County Warning Area where les will become better 
organized. Deep instability along with well aligned flow will 
likely need additional headlines. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday night through Monday/... 
a deepening trough over the eastern U.S. This period...should mean 
colder than average temperatures...and frequent trough/frontal 
passages. No major storms appear to be on the horizon. 


Lake-effect snow showers Thursday night...should diminish on 
Friday. A clipper type system could bring some snow Friday night 
into Saturday. Following this fast moving disturbance...More Lake- 
effect snow showers anticipated late in the weekend into next week. 


&& 


Aviation /00z Tuesday through Saturday/... 
VFR conditions through most of the taf period. Light westerly winds 
tonight become southeast by Tuesday morning 10 kts or less. 


System pushing NE from Ohio Valley will bring snow into avp, Elm, 
bgm and ith toward the later part of the period...with drop to MVFR 
or lower expected late afternoon or early evening Tuesday. 




Outlook... 


Tuesday ngt/Wed...MVFR/IFR. Mixed precipitation. 


Wednesday ngt/Thu...MVFR in snow showers...mainly New York state terminals. 


Thursday ngt/Fri...MVFR in snow showers...especially krme/ksyr. 


Friday ngt/Sat...MVFR/IFR. Snow possible. 


&& 


Bgm watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New York...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday 
afternoon for nyz009-036-037-046-057. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...rrm 
near term...rrm 
short term...rrm 
long term...mlj 
aviation...jml/mlj