Weather

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Buffalo New York 
332 PM EDT Monday Oct 6 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure and dry weather will build across the area through 
midweek...along with temperatures moderating to above normal levels 
by Wednesday. A weak cold front moving east from the Central Lakes 
will bring a chance of showers Wednesday night and Thursday. High 
pressure will then build back across the area behind the front 
providing fair weather for the end of the week. 


&& 


Near term /through Tuesday/... 
this will be an excellent night for radiational cooling. With surface 
dewpoints in the low to middle 30s I expect to see widespread frost 
overnight. Temperatures will drop below 32 in a few of the inland areas 
as well. For that reason we will maintain our current frost and 
freeze warnings for wny. 


Tuesday will be a beautiful...albeit seasonally cool...fall day 
with light winds and plenty o' sunshine as the surface high crests 
across New York. 


&& 


Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday/... 
high pressure will remain over the area Tuesday night before sliding 
off the eastern Seaboard Wednesday morning. It should be a rather 
chilly night Tuesday night as skies will be clear for much of the 
night under light winds...but temperatures may be held up a bit 
across western sections with some increase in cloudiness and a 
light southerly flow developing on the western side of the high. 
Should be some areas of frost...especially across eastern 
sections where skies will remain clear the longest. 


The high will be off the eastern Seaboard Wednesday with a warm 
southerly flow circulating around the high pushing 850 mb 
temperatures to plus 10c to plus 12c. This should result in 
temperatures rising into the upper 60s to lower 70s...some 5 to 10 
degrees above normal for this time of year. Cloudiness should be 
on the increase from west to east through the day...as moisture 
works northward ahead of an area of low pressure over lower 
Michigan and associated weak cold front. Any shower activity 
should hold off until Wednesday evening...although the more 
progressive NAM brings the leading edge of precipitation into 
western section late Wednesday afternoon. 


The weak frontal boundary looks to work across the area Wednesday 
night and Thursday morning which will bring the potential for 
scattered showers. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday night through Monday/... 
high pressure will build into the area behind the frontal boundary 
Thursday night and Friday. This looks to be a fair weather period. 
However...the remainder of the medium range period continues to look 
very uncertain with continued large discrepancies between the GFS 
and European model (ecmwf) models. The European model (ecmwf) is basically dry for the area through 
the coming weekend with a large area of high pressure remaining 
across the region...while the GFS continues to lift an upper low 
from the southeast states...northward along the Atlantic Seaboard. 
This solution would result in a decent fetch of Atlantic moisture 
northward into the area and bring the potential for showers into 
the area. We will remain close to continuity and HPC guidance 
which favors the the European model (ecmwf) solution of high pressure remaining 
over the northeast Continental U.S....and keeping the rain suppressed to our 
south. This period does look to favor the potential for much 
warmer than normal temperatures with sufficient height rises and a 
southwest flow aloft pushing 850 mb temperatures above plus 10c 
for a good portion of the period. 


&& 


Aviation /20z Monday through Saturday/... 
VFR conditions overnight under strong high pressure. Northeast 
winds this afternoon at 10 to 15 knots will drop below 10 knots 
and become variable overnight. VFR Tuesday as well. 


Outlook... 
Tuesday night through Friday...primarily VFR with the exception of 
Wednesday night and Thursday where we will have showers producing localized 
MVFR conditions. 


&& 


Marine... 
northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots into early this evening will 
produce some choppy conditions on the lakes...but waves will 
remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. High pressure building 
over the lower lakes region will slacken winds and diminish waves 
tonight and Tuesday. Southwest winds will pick up ahead of an 
approaching cold front late Wednesday and Wednesday evening...then 
turn westerly behind it early Thursday. Small craft conditions 
will be possible mainly on Lake Erie Wednesday night into early 
Thursday. 


&& 


Buf watches/warnings/advisories... 
New York...freeze warning from midnight tonight to 8 am EDT Tuesday for 
nyz006>008-012-019>021-085. 
Frost advisory from midnight tonight to 8 am EDT Tuesday for 
nyz001>005-010-011-013-014. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...tma 
near term...tan 
short term...tma 
long term...tma 
aviation...tan 
marine...tma