Weather

932 
fxus61 kbgm 070651 
afdbgm 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York 
251 am EDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
as tropical system Hanna moves off to the east tonight...weak high 
pressure will build across upstate New York and northern Pennsylvania 
tonight and Sunday. Temperatures will be back near normal on Sunday 
with varying amounts of clouds and sunshine. The next best chance 
for rain will be Tuesday as the next cold front approaches the 
area. 


&& 


Near term /until 8 am this morning/... 
as of 1010 PM...ts Hanna was departing into New England with rain 
shield exiting the Catskills and nepa pretty quickly. As a 
result...have dropped the Flood Watch. Cold front was also 
crossing the region with increasing northwesterly winds bringing in a drier 
airmass. Clearing was also moving in fairly quickly from western New York. 
We should see areas of light rain or drizzle just behind the front over 
the next few hours...then breaks in the cloud cover late. We feel 
that any clearing has the chance to be self destructive as the blyr 
cools...and will lead to fog/stratus development toward sunrise... 
with areas of dense fog likely from rain soaked ground. 


&& 


Short term /8 am this morning through Tuesday/... 
brief hipres builds in on Sunday. Morning fog/stratus slow to burn 
off...leading to a p/S-mcldy day. Could see skies begin to clear across 
the south and east by late morning with moisture trapped under 
inversion across the north. Next shortwave currently located over Kansas/MO 
will ride northeast on Sunday...possibly bringing light shower to 
The Finger lakes Sun afternoon. Most guidance shoots this precipitation north of 
the County Warning Area so have only added in 20 probability of precipitation for the time being. 


Next system trending a bit slower and have backed off on precipitation to 
late Monday night/early Tuesday morning as models are slowing down ewrd 
push of this lopres area. Could even see warm advection precipitation delayed 
until Tuesday afternoon but will not make drastic changes at this time. 


Temperatures will remain near normal through the period. Temperatures on Tuesday will 
depend on progress of next cold front and forecast of u60s/l70s may need to 
be adjusted upwards if system appears to slow any further. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/... 
current extended in good shape after looking at latest GFS/ECMWF. 
Once again only minor tweaks made and included chance probability of precipitation for 
Saturday as both GFS/European model (ecmwf) and HPC indicate frontal boundary in 
vicinity with surface wave in Great Lakes region. 


Previous disc... 
Wednesday and Thursday look like a nice couple of days as surface 
high moves across and east of the region. Moisture then increases 
Thursday night into Friday as another front pushes east. Looks 
like we then dry out again at the end of the period with weak high 
pressure in place. 


Temperatures may be a bit below seasonal averages behind the front 
Wednesday, but otherwise look to be not too far from normal for 
much of the period. 


&& 


Aviation /07z Sunday through Thursday/... 
low clouds continue to linger behind ts Hanna and this trend will 
continue until sunrise. Flight restrictions early this morning 
will be due to cloud height as fog unlikely due to mixing and 
increasing temperature/dew point spread. MVFR ceiling restrictions are 
expected at most taf sites until sunrise except VFR at kelm and 
IFR at kith. By middle morning broken ceilings will lift to VFR then 
scatter out. Later this afternoon approaching upper level trough 
will spread a middle deck across terminals. 


Light northwest winds early this morning increasing to around 10 
knots by middle morning then becoming west/SW around 5 knots this evening. 


Outlook... 


Sun night to Monday...VFR. Some early morning restrictions in fog most 
likely at Elm. Other locations could fall to MVFR visibilities due to wet 
ground and good radiational cooling. 


Monday night to Tuesday...next front approaches late Monday night with 
MVFR restrictions in showers and possibly thunder along boundary 
Tuesday. 


Wednesday to Thursday...VFR. Restrictions possible in morning fog 
especially at Elmira. 


&& 


Bgm watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...jab 
near term...jab 
short term...jab/pvb 
long term...jml/rrm 
aviation...rrm