Weather

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Buffalo New York 
329 PM EDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Synopsis... 
moisture from the remains of Fay will drift eastward across the 
Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes tonight and be followed by a weak 
cold front later Friday and Friday night but only a few showers 
are expected with this feature. High pressure will then gradually 
build eastward and provide glorious weather for the Labor Day 
weekend with clearing skies Saturday followed by full sunshine 
Sunday and Labor Day Monday along with seasonably warm 
temperatures. The high will stall over the northeast for most of 
next week and continue the warm dry weather at least through next 
Thursday. 


&& 


Near term /through Friday/... 
NAM and GFS seem to be too slow in moving the bulk of the precipitation out 
of the forecast area this evening. Radar is showing the steady 
precipitation over The Finger lakes to the eastern Genesee Valley...moving 
to the east. Expect most of the this excessive-Fay rain to exit the region 
to the east by early evening. Cold front across the central Great 
Lakes to northern Indiana will continue its eastward trek tonight 
but it will likely be split by the southeastward movement of the 
cntl Illinois mesoscale convective system and the northeast movement of the weak surface low 
over northeastern Ontario. Will have chance probability of precipitation along the front 
from late morning through the early evening on Friday with much less 
quantitative precipitation forecast...although a stray thunderstorm is not out of the question with 
afternoon warmth ahead of the front. Cape at Rochester does top out 
near 1000 j/kg during late afternoon with lifted index nearing -3c. 


&& 


Short term /Friday night through Sunday night/... 
a weak front will ease across the region Friday night but its best 
dynamics pass by to the north and convection will be limited so 
will maintain low chance probability of precipitation throughout...but tend to dry it out 
from west to east overnight. Drier air continues to work east on 
Saturday as surface ridge builds east from the western lakes but 
subtle wind shift working across the area may set off an isolated 
shower or two in morning east of the Genesee Valley...but we dont 
expect anything more significant as middle levels will still be 
rather warm (850 mb's of 13c) limiting instability. So...expect 
increasing sunshine as Saturday wears on with temperatures rebounding to 
u70s/near 80. 


Sunday continues to look great as ridge builds in at all levels. 
Near full sunshine...light winds...and temperatures near 80. 


&& 


Long term /Monday through Thursday/... 
Summer GOES out in style as we will enjoy a long period of warm 
sunny weather. Major blocking high sets up over northeast and eastern 
lakes Monday through at least Wednesday before settling south a bit Thursday. 
So...simply...dry warm and sunny weather through the period. 850 mb 
temperatures will be in 16-17c range each day...easily supporting middle 
80s. Humidity levels will be low to moderate. 12z GFS does break 
down the ridge enough to allow a front and its convection to 
approach our area later Thursday...but European model (ecmwf) and HPC graphics hold 
the strong high over US and that seems a bit more realistic at 
this stage so will continue the dry warm weather through Thursday as well. 


&& 


Aviation /20z Thursday through Tuesday/... 
widespread precipitation over much of central and western New York...but VFR 
conditions prevail as precipitation is not restricting visibility nor lowering of 
middle cloud deck. 


Ceilings will lower tonight to MVFR especially from kroc westward with 
IFR conditions likely over kjhw in low stratus and fog. 




Outlook... 
Friday...VFR. Chance of shwrs/tstms. 
Saturday...mainly VFR. Chance 
showers/thunderstorms east of Lake Ontario through 18z. 
Sunday through Tuesday...VFR 


&& 


Marine... 
winds and waves are expected to continue below small craft criteria 
so no headlines are expected through the middle of next week. 


&& 


Buf watches/warnings/advisories... 
New York...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...sfm 
near term...wch 
short term...sfm 
long term...sfm 
aviation...wch 
marine...sfm/wch