Weather

340 
fxus65 klkn 212202 
afdlkn 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Elko Nevada 
300 PM PDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Synopsis...high pressure will begin to build over the region 
tonight. As it does...moisture will slowly begin to move in over 
central Nevada. This will allow the possibility for thunderstorm 
development Friday and Saturday afternoon. The moisture will exit 
the area by Sunday afternoon as another trough of low pressure 
approaches the area. This trough will cool temperatures slightly by 
middle week across the Silver state. 
&& 


Short term...tonight through Saturday...a trough that was expected 
to bring some clouds to northern Nevada has remained to the north... 
keeping skies almost cloudless...except for a few cumulus that 
developed near the Idaho state line. This trough will continue to 
move away this evening allowing high pressure to build in over the 
Great Basin. Humidity level are also up today somewhat compared to 
yesterday as some Pacific moisture filtered in under the trough. 
Also...some additional moisture will filter in around the developing 
high. This may fuel some isolated dry thunderstorms over the next 
couple of days. Tomorrow is not very likely...but a couple of 
isolated strikes may occur. 


On Saturday...precipitable water values will be up to around .75 inches and lifted indices 
will drop to near -1 over the normal convergence area from southern 
Lander/Eureka counties into White Pine and southeastern Elko 
counties...mainly east of the rubies. Omegas are also favorable 
from 700 mb all the way up through 400 mb. Cape is marginal around 
200-300 j/kg. Currently thought is that the storms will not be 
particularly fast or slow...with movement generally to the 
northeast around 10 to 15 miles per hour. 


Long term...Saturday night through Thursday. At 500mb models agree 
on southwest flow through Monday. After that...some differences 
develop. GFS and ecm have next trough on Tuesday...but dgex holds off 
until Wednesday night and is much stronger. Will stay with consensus 
GFS/ecm for time being. Like current trough...this next would probably 
be dry also for our forecast area. Also like current trough...would mainly 
affect northern portion of the forecast area with regard to slightly 
cooler temperatures and winds. Weak northwest flow develops Wednesday...and high 
pressure builds in from the south Thursday. Rea 
&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions are expected across central and northern 
Nevada again tonight and Friday...with mostly clear skies. Gusty 
winds across northern Nevada will be the only concern this 
afternoon...as a disturbance moves north of the area. Friday 
afternoon will possibly see some convective development and a 
lightning stroke or two between Ely and tph in the higher terrain of 
central Nevada. Convective development will be a little stronger 
Saturday afternoon and cover a broader area. Rea 
&& 


Fire weather...gusty winds will begin to subside this evening as a 
trough of low pressure exits the area. Tomorrow afternoon will see 
a slight chance of dry thunderstorm development over central Nevada. 
The chance of thunderstorms will increase on Saturday. With not a 
lot of moisture...most of the storms that develop will be dry. 
Given this have issued a Fire Weather Watch for all zones but 451 
for Saturday late morning through early evening for the dry 
thunderstorms. 
&& 


Lkn watches/warnings/advisories...Fire Weather Watch in effect 
Saturday late morning through early afternoon for fire weather 
zones 452...454...455...and 457 for dry thunderstorms. 


$$