Weather

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
807 PM MST Monday Jan 5 2009 


Update... 
updated to raise probability of precipitation to likely over most of the northwest corner of the 
state...including the higher terrain of the sangre Delaware cristo and 
Sandia Mountains reports from Farmington already show 0.5 inches of 
snow with moderate snow ongoing. 400-250mb acars data showing a 
120-130 knot jet over SW Utah diving southeast toward western nm. The 
latest water vapor loop indicates a wave strengthening on the 
eastern periphery of this jet with subsidence evident over southeast 
Nevada. 12z/18z computer models with support from the latest 
NAM/RUC analysis shows light quantitative precipitation forecast over a widespread area of the northwest 
corner through sunrise. Raised snow amounts to 1 to 2 inches over the 
northwest with 4 inches not out of the question over the higher terrain 
of the Jemez Mountains. Will hoist a Winter Weather Advisory for the northwest 
plateau through 8am...where Farmington will receive up to 2 inches. 
BUFKIT profiles show snow growth will be dendritic as the -15 to 
-20c layer coincides with the best vertical motion...thus leading 
to easily accumulating snowfall. The other area of snow will likely 
set up along the Gallup to Grants corridor of i40 NE to near Cuba 
and Chama...however amounts will stay below advisory criteria above 
7500 feet. Also raised winds over much of the state through Tuesday 
with just under wind advisories for the east slopes. 700mb jet of 
40-50 knots will translate southeast through the day across the central mountains 
lowered maximum temperatures for Tuesday since 700mb temperatures of -10c will advect 
in behind the departing wave. Wind chill values Tuesday will make 
it feel colder than today across a good chunk of the County Warning Area. Guyer 


&& 


Previous discussion...255 PM MST Monday Jan 5 2009... 
much of New Mexico lies between systems as the low pressure 
disturbance that brought the inclement weather to the region is on 
its way out. Another quick-moving trough will slide across the 
state overnight. This system will have enough strength to help 
produce a quick burst of precipitation...primarily across western 
and northern sections of the state through early Tuesday. This 
system will also aid in the development of windy conditions 
Tuesday afternoon to the east of the Central Mountain chain. 


Beyond Tuesday...ridging builds across the state which will 
support a brief but noticeable warming trend and moderating 
weather conditions...aside from some winds across the east on 
Wednesday. 


We will then see another low pressure system across the region 
toward the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Models 
continue to be in significant disagreement regarding the evolution 
of this system...and as a result...confidence regarding any 
forecast solution is low at the present time. 


Aviation... 
deep trough extending from northeast to southwest across New 
Mexico will focus IFR ceilings and viz from The Four Corners to the 
Rio Grande Valley through 06z tonight with widespread Montana 
obscuration. Excursions to low ceilings and viz in snow showers will 
extend to the sangre Delaware cristo mountains by 12z Tuesday morning. 
Gusty winds developing over the eastern plains from the Central 
Mountain chain on Tuesday afternoon after 18z will continue 
through Tuesday sunset. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 10z. Shy 


Fire weather... 
cloud cover and cooler temperatures will slow a Tuesday warming 
trend...and keep humidities above critical thresholds as Tuesday 
afternoon northwest winds become gusty mainly over the eastern 
plains from the Interstate 40 corridor southward as a tight 
surface pressure gradient between high pressure over The Four 
Corners and trough over the Texas Panhandle under strong northwest 
flow aloft. Humidities will remain in the upper teens over the 
east Central Plains for Tuesday. 


Clearing skies and warming trend underway for Wednesday...with 
deepening surface trough over the Texas Panhandle. Northwest winds 
developing Thursday afternoon over the eastern plains will combine 
with humidities in the upper teens to produce near critical fire 
weather conditions during the afternoon. 


Ridge building northward through the remainder of the work week will 
drop afternoon wind speeds below critical levels with deteriorating 
ventilation conditions. Next inbound weather system over the North 
Pacific will make landfall in northern California Thursday and dig 
to The Four Corners by early Saturday. System passage over the 
Siskiyous and Sierra Nevada will scrape off much of the 
moisture...with spotty rains and snows over the northern mountains 
by the weekend as cloud cover builds from north to south. 


Shy 


&& 


Preliminary point temperatures/probability of precipitation update... 
Farmington...................... 16 33 20 44 / 60 10 5 10 
Gallup.......................... 15 33 15 47 / 60 5 5 0 
Grants.......................... 19 35 17 48 / 60 10 5 0 
Glenwood........................ 25 48 25 60 / 20 10 0 0 
Chama........................... 9 26 3 40 / 60 20 10 10 
Los Alamos...................... 18 32 15 44 / 40 5 0 5 
Red River....................... 6 22 5 39 / 60 10 5 5 
Taos............................ 7 31 11 44 / 30 10 5 5 
Santa Fe........................ 14 29 18 44 / 50 5 5 5 
Santa Fe Airport................ 17 32 20 46 / 40 5 0 5 
Espanola........................ 17 35 19 48 / 30 5 5 5 
Albuquerque heights............. 27 39 25 50 / 30 5 0 0 
Albuquerque valley.............. 28 41 23 52 / 30 0 0 0 
Albuquerque foothills........... 27 35 22 48 / 40 5 0 0 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 26 39 24 51 / 40 0 0 0 
Socorro......................... 30 47 23 57 / 10 0 0 0 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 24 35 19 46 / 60 5 0 0 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 23 35 22 47 / 20 10 0 0 
Carrizozo....................... 29 46 25 56 / 30 5 0 0 
Ruidoso......................... 22 39 27 55 / 30 5 0 0 
Raton........................... 14 39 13 51 / 10 5 5 5 
Las Vegas....................... 14 35 20 52 / 10 5 5 5 
Roy............................. 22 41 23 56 / 0 0 0 5 
Clayton......................... 24 42 22 58 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Rosa...................... 26 48 27 62 / 0 5 0 5 
Tucumcari....................... 27 49 26 62 / 0 0 0 5 
Fort Sumner..................... 28 50 26 65 / 0 0 0 5 
Clovis.......................... 29 50 27 65 / 0 0 0 0 
Portales........................ 30 50 26 66 / 0 0 0 5 
Roswell......................... 30 55 29 68 / 0 0 0 5 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 am MST Tuesday for the following 
zones...nmz001. 


&& 


$$ 


Guyer 

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