Weather

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
302 PM MDT Friday Aug 29 2008 


Discussion... 
showers and thunderstorms have formed across eastern New Mexico this 
afternoon thanks to the upper low and residual frontal boundary from 
yesterday. Laps analysis showing greater than 1500 j/kg of cape...so 
would not be surprised to see a few strong storms through this 
evening. Storms have also formed along the northern high 
terrain...and additional storms in Colorado should move into this 
area later today. 


Satellite imagery suggesting that the upper low...which has been 
drifting northward today...is finally starting to make a turn to the 
west. However...the impact of this feature should continue through 
tomorrow across the southeast and southcentral zones as it 
continues drifting west and southwest. Have increased probability of precipitation and 
lowered temperatures across these areas tomorrow...and later shifts will 
need to watch the progression of this feature. In addition... the 
upper high currently stretching over northern nm will slide 
eastward tomorrow as the upper trough moves into the western 
Continental U.S.. moisture from old Mexico will begin to surge northward..and 
an uptick in precipitation is anticipated across the southwest 
portion of the County Warning Area as well. 


Sunday into Monday should be the most active time period as the 
upper trough nears and picks up weak disturbances across old 
Mexico. Have increased probability of precipitation into the likely category for much of 
central and western New Mexico on Sunday...with some 50-60 probability of precipitation 
across the northern higher terrain on Monday. Though widespread 
precipitation is anticipated...storms should move fairly quickly 
to the north-northeast. Thus the flooding threat will be mitigated 
some...though...if storms train over the same areas...there may 
still be some flooding concerns. The upper low lifts northeast 
late Monday into Tuesday...and though there may be some lingering 
showers across the area...coverage should be far less for Tuesday. 
This storm system will send a back door cold front into the 
eastern plains for Wednesday...which should increase cloud 
cover...and possibly the chances for precipitation across the 
northeast. 


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&& 


Aviation... 
showers and thunderstorms once again today. Similar areal coverage 
if not a bit more compared to the past few days. Central and eastern 
terminal sites are most likely to be affected. Especially row and 
tcc. MVFR and some localized IFR conditions will develop later 
tonight across the eastern plains. Some fog development will also be 
possible versus just the low cloud event that occurred last night. 
Lvs...tcc and row will most likely be affected by at least low 
clouds. 




Next aviation discussion scheduled for 09z. 


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Fire weather... 
humidity will continue to gradually trend up over the next couple of 
days. Lowest humidity on Saturday will be found across the northwest 
quarter where readings will drop into the lower 20s. Otherwise a 
significant rise in relative humidity expected Sunday into Monday areawide ahead of a 
vigorous trough passage. Moisture ahead of the trough will be 
pouring into the state from the south. This will fuel significant 
coverage of wetting showers and storms. Drier air is expected to 
sweep in behind the upper trough passage and significantly reduce 
thunderstorm development Tuesday/Wednesday. Long range models 
however are looking at depicting a back door front and some wetting 
rain across the east on Wednesday. Confidence is low to moderate 
that moisture from this front will spill westward and increase storm 
coverage across the west midweek. 


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&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 63 89 63 80 / 20 20 30 50 
Gallup.......................... 56 82 57 75 / 10 20 30 60 
Grants.......................... 57 81 56 75 / 20 20 30 60 
Glenwood........................ 59 85 58 82 / 30 50 40 60 
Chama........................... 45 78 46 72 / 50 30 30 50 
Los Alamos...................... 52 78 51 73 / 30 20 30 50 
Red River....................... 41 70 42 67 / 40 40 30 40 
Taos............................ 51 80 52 74 / 40 20 20 40 
Santa Fe........................ 55 78 55 72 / 20 30 30 50 
Santa Fe Airport................ 56 80 55 74 / 20 20 30 50 
Espanola........................ 54 84 54 78 / 20 20 20 50 
Albuquerque heights............. 65 82 62 78 / 20 20 30 50 
Albuquerque valley.............. 62 84 61 79 / 20 20 30 50 
Albuquerque foothills........... 60 80 57 77 / 20 20 30 60 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 62 83 61 78 / 20 20 30 50 
Socorro......................... 61 82 60 79 / 20 40 30 50 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 51 73 49 72 / 20 20 30 60 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 78 51 74 / 20 20 30 50 
Carrizozo....................... 57 78 55 77 / 30 40 30 50 
Ruidoso......................... 53 67 50 68 / 40 50 40 50 
Raton........................... 53 81 53 78 / 30 20 20 30 
Las Vegas....................... 52 75 51 72 / 30 20 30 40 
Roy............................. 57 78 57 75 / 30 20 10 30 
Clayton......................... 60 83 60 82 / 30 20 10 20 
Santa Rosa...................... 58 84 58 81 / 30 20 30 40 
Tucumcari....................... 62 83 63 84 / 30 30 20 30 
Fort Sumner..................... 62 81 61 81 / 30 30 30 30 
Clovis.......................... 62 78 60 83 / 30 50 20 30 
Portales........................ 62 79 61 83 / 30 50 30 30 
Roswell......................... 64 78 63 81 / 40 60 40 40 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


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