Weather

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fxus64 kmaf 070542 
afdmaf 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas 
1242 am CDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Discussion... 
see aviation discussion below... 


&& 


Aviation... 
southeasterly winds will begin to increase during the early 
afternoon hours across all taf sites. Expect winds to be in the 15 
to 20kt range with gusts to near 25kt possible. Most locations 
will likely see winds begin to drop off after sunset...however 
kfst could stay up a bit later than 06z. High clouds will continue 
to filter into the area from the southwest as seen on infrared satellite 
imagery this morning. Most will remain above 12kft and shouldn/T 
pose significant problems to aviation interests. However...could 
see some isolated -tsra near kcnm during the afternoon hours. Have 
included a prob30 for this possibility this afternoon and evening. 
Otherwise...VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. /13/ 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 250 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2008/ 


Discussion... 
the best chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight through Monday 
will be across western sections as several upper air disturbances 
act upon the higher middle level Theta-E air (greater instability). 


The 12z Saturday guidance runs are now indicating a stronger and 
more amplified middle level trough translating across the plains states 
on Monday. Consequently the surface cold front looks stronger and 
there will be enough convection across North Texas and the Texas 
Panhandle to help propel the front Monday night into the Permian 
Basin...south and west into the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. 
Decided to increase probability of precipitation across the Permian Basin Monday night in 
response to this front and a middle level shear axis. Cooler 
temperatures are anticipated Tuesday behind the front with best 
chance of convection shifting south toward the lower trans Pecos and 
the mountains. The front should wash out Wednesday but moisture 
trapped beneath and near a strengthening upper high will keep 
the slight chance of convection going Wednesday and Thursday 
especially across the Davis Mountains and Big Bend as shortwaves 
traverse the periphery of the upper high. Later shifts will need 
to monitor probability of precipitation north and west of the aforementioned area as 
the track of the shortwaves will dictate placement of the 
precipitation. There will be a slight chance of convection on 
Friday as another cold front moves south into the dirty ridge. 


&& 


Maf watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 


&& 


$$ 


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