Weather

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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
558 PM MDT Friday Oct 10 2008 


Update... 
allowing Wind Advisory for wc and SW mountains and NE nm to expire 
at 6 PM MDT. Adjusted headlines accordingly. Chj 


&& 


Previous discussion...305 PM MDT Friday Oct 10 2008... 
big changes underway for north and central New Mexico. Latest water 
vapor loop shows an impressive early fall trough digging over the 
Great Basin...Hurricane Norbert churning NE toward the Baja California...and 
dry air in between over AZ/nm. A 996mb surface low pressure center 
over southeast Utah continues to deepen...allowing south southwesterly flow 
to pull moisture northward out of old Mexico. For tonight...models 
indicate very efficient top down moistening as middle and upper level 
moisture increases over the area while surface dewpoints creep up 
into the 40s and 50s. Isolated showers and storms will begin to develop 
first over the Gila region then spread quickly northeast on fast 
south-southwest flow. 


Models are in excellent agreement with the overall pattern evolution 
through about Sunday afternoon. Ensemble gefs/sref members indicate 
the 500mb trough will deepen to an intense 543dm low over the Great 
Basin Saturday. This is 4 Standard devs below climatology. Meanwhile...precipitable waters  
will average 0.75-1.00 across at least central and eastern nm which 
is 2.5-3.0 Standard devs above normal. Significant dynamics associated 
with the system will first create...strong winds over much of the 
western half of the state Saturday. Will leave high wind watch intact 
over the west with expectation that it will be upgraded to a warning 
later tonight. 700mb winds will approach 60 knots across the west 
and metmos guidance supports sustained winds around 40 miles per hour with gusts 
up to 60 miles per hour possible. Will allow spread a Wind Advisory east into 
the Central Valley and NE plains for Saturday. 


Secondly...two areas of instability will develop over the region. 
The first over the east plains where severe storms are possible from 
late afternoon into the evening hours. Strong conditional symmetric 
instability will develop over the western half of the state by Sat 
evening in asscn with strong low/middle level frontogenesis. This will 
spread east into the Central Valley through the overnight hours. 
Raised probability of precipitation to definite along the Continental Divide and northwest 
mountains Saturday evening with likely probability of precipitation elsewhere. Heavy rainfall is 
possible over the SW facing slopes of the Gila region and along the 
Central Mountain chain however amounts are expected to stay below flash 
flood guidance. 


Precipitation will continue into early Sunday for at least the eastern half 
of the forecast area. Models continue to show differences on how far 
west the upper trough will linger through Sunday night. Raised probability of precipitation 
to high chance in line with mav/metmos numbers and went below guidance 
on temperatures through Monday. Strong differences emerge Monday into Wednesday 
therefore left extended grids unchanged to await better model consistency. 


Guyer 


Aviation... 
weather conditions will begin to deteriorate in terms of precipitation 
and lowering clouds across the forecast area later tonight. Especially 
across the Southwest Mountains. In the meantime...gusty winds will be 
the main weather factor to aviation. The western third and northeast 
half will be favored the rest of today with sustained readings between 
22 to 30 knots and gusts in the 32 to 40 knots range. Stronger winds anticipated 
on Saturday with developing widespread MVFR conditions. Severe storm 
potential will also exist across the eastern third. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 09z. 


Fire weather... 
gusty winds will gradually abate early to middle evening although the 
highest ridges will remain rather gusty. Areas to the Lee of the 
significant mountain ranges...especially ranges that lie more west 
to east...will also see mountain wave development and periodic 
strong gusts tonight. Critical fire weather conditions will also 
occur for 1 to 2 hours across the northeast and east Central Plains 
thanks to marginally low humidity and gusty winds this afternoon. 


Very unsettled weather pattern for the weekend as a vigorous upper 
level trough digs into the Great Basin. Moisture from Hurricane 
Norbert will be transported across New Mexico ahead of this trough. 
Look for increasing precipitation starting across the southwest mts 
later tonight and spreading northward and eastward Saturday into 
Saturday night. It is looking more and more like wetter conditions 
will prevail so plan on at least a few hours of wetting rain across 
central and eastern portions of the forecast area. Winds will also 
be a big story on Saturday with strongest readings expected across 
west central and southwest areas as well as along and just to the 
east of the central mountains. Bottom line...winds will be very windy 
on Saturday areawide and even with cloud cover. Winds are expected 
to lessen on Sunday with some residual precipitation across the 
east. 


There still appears to be some uncertainty for early next week. As 
of now...residual precipitation could remain across eastern and 
perhaps southern areas while very dry air in the form of low 
dewpoints settles in across the northwest half. Cloud cover will be 
the wild card as far as a widespread freezing event across the 
northwest half both Monday and Tuesday mornings. 


&& 


Preliminary point temperatures/probability of precipitation update... 
Farmington...................... 52 67 42 55 / 10 40 40 10 
Gallup.......................... 48 64 32 53 / 10 50 40 10 
Grants.......................... 45 66 37 57 / 20 50 80 20 
Glenwood........................ 50 69 47 66 / 30 80 60 20 
Chama........................... 38 55 33 48 / 30 70 90 20 
Los Alamos...................... 43 58 41 56 / 20 60 70 30 
Red River....................... 36 55 35 49 / 20 60 80 40 
Taos............................ 43 62 43 55 / 20 60 70 40 
Santa Fe........................ 45 62 42 58 / 20 60 70 40 
Santa Fe Airport................ 47 65 45 60 / 10 50 70 40 
Espanola........................ 43 67 45 63 / 10 50 60 30 
Albuquerque heights............. 54 70 50 63 / 10 40 60 30 
Albuquerque valley.............. 50 71 48 65 / 10 40 60 30 
Albuquerque foothills........... 51 68 45 60 / 10 50 70 30 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 52 69 46 65 / 10 40 70 30 
Socorro......................... 51 71 50 70 / 20 50 50 30 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 42 59 39 58 / 20 60 60 40 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 46 63 44 59 / 10 50 60 30 
Carrizozo....................... 50 66 50 68 / 20 60 40 30 
Ruidoso......................... 46 63 47 62 / 20 70 40 30 
Raton........................... 48 67 46 65 / 5 50 70 30 
Las Vegas....................... 49 62 45 61 / 10 50 70 40 
Roy............................. 50 68 49 66 / 10 50 70 30 
Clayton......................... 52 72 54 69 / 5 60 70 30 
Santa Rosa...................... 54 69 52 70 / 10 50 60 30 
Tucumcari....................... 58 75 60 72 / 10 70 60 30 
Fort Sumner..................... 55 73 56 72 / 10 60 60 30 
Clovis.......................... 55 72 56 72 / 10 70 60 30 
Portales........................ 57 74 59 73 / 10 70 60 30 
Roswell......................... 57 80 59 75 / 10 60 40 20 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Wind Advisory from 9 am to 9 PM MDT Saturday for the following 
zones...nmz002>007-009>012-015>017-026. 


High wind watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for 
the following zones...nmz001-008-014. 


&& 


$$ 


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