Weather

020 
fxus65 kabq 070919 
afdabq 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
300 am MDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Discussion...surface boundary has slipped southward again to a 
krtn-klvs-ktcc line at 07z and suspect it will get at least as far 
south and west at it did 24 hours ago...along a line from kcqc to 
kcvn. Low clouds and patchy fog have filled in behind it...which 
should dissipate later this morning as the boundary retreats 
northward again today. The areas which appear to have the best 
chance to see showers and thunderstorms this afternoon remain over 
the southwest...south central and southeast. Models forecast middle 
level moisture increasing today over those regions. Isolated 
activity could stretch as far north along the east slopes of the 
Central Mountain chain to Interstate 40 but that might be pushing 
the envelope. GFS also spreads this moisture along the Continental Divide and 
across the Rio Grande Valley...so even isolated activity around kabq 
not out of the question if this pans out. 


The surface boundary sags southward again tonight...but is 
reinforced Monday by a much stronger push from a disturbance passing 
into the northern and Central Plains. This could assist low level 
easterly winds to spread across much of the state...while additional 
middle level moisture is transported into New Mexico from the south. A 
baggy upper trough setting up along the West Coast will allow for 
more plentiful and persistent flow of moisture into New Mexico 
Tuesday and Wednesday. This flow may continue into Thursday before 
strengthening northwest winds bring a drying trend to the state. 


&& 


Aviation...IFR and isolated LIFR ceilings will continue across 
northeast New Mexico from the east slopes of the sangre Delaware cristo 
mountains...to klvs...to ktcc. Ceilings may briefly lower as far 
south as kcqc and kcvs near sunrise. Patchy fog...restricting 
visibilities down to 2 miles or less...is also possible through middle 
morning across northeast nm. VFR conditions will return by 18z. A 
disturbance moving across the state will increase chances for 
showers and thunderstorms...mainly across southern and eastern 
sections. Any thunderstorm...particularly across the 
southwest...will be capable of gusty winds. Though storms across the 
eastern half of the state may also contain some small hail. 
Activity will diminish after sunset. Another cold front should be 
close to entering northeast nm by 12z Monday. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 21z. 


&& 


Fire weather...afternoon humidities will drop below 15 percent 
across much of western New Mexico again this afternoon. 
However...the major change from yesterday will be an increase in the 
chance for showers and thunderstorms...mainly across the southern 
and eastern sections as a upper level disturbance moves across the 
state. These storms will be scattered in nature...thus not expecting 
any widespread wetting rains. However...storms may be more of the 
wet/dry nature across the southwest...and thus have the potential 
for gusty winds. Moderate humidity recoveries expected tonight 
across the northwest third of the state...with excellent recoveries 
expected elsewhere. Overnight low temperatures will flirt the 
freezing mark across the northern high terrain again tonight. A cold 
front will plunge into northeast New Mexico on Monday and surge 
southward through the evening. As moisture pushes through the gaps 
of the Central Mountain chain Monday night...low level moisture will 
increase across western New Mexico and provide some relief to the 
low daytime humidities. Tuesday through Friday look to be wetter 
across the area...as middle level moisture is advected north from old 
Mexico. Look for isolated to scattered thunderstorms each day. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 89 50 87 54 / 5 5 0 0 
Gallup.......................... 84 44 84 47 / 10 10 10 10 
Grants.......................... 84 44 83 47 / 10 10 10 10 
Glenwood........................ 86 51 87 54 / 20 20 30 20 
Chama........................... 75 36 75 41 / 5 10 5 10 
Los Alamos...................... 85 50 79 48 / 5 10 30 20 
Red River....................... 72 35 71 37 / 5 10 20 10 
Taos............................ 82 42 78 44 / 5 10 10 20 
Santa Fe........................ 83 51 80 51 / 10 20 10 20 
Santa Fe Airport................ 85 52 82 53 / 10 20 20 20 
Espanola........................ 86 48 84 51 / 5 10 10 20 
Albuquerque heights............. 87 60 85 60 / 10 20 10 20 
Albuquerque valley.............. 89 54 87 57 / 10 20 10 20 
Albuquerque foothills........... 85 57 83 56 / 10 20 10 20 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 89 57 87 58 / 10 20 10 20 
Socorro......................... 87 56 87 56 / 20 20 10 20 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 82 52 81 48 / 10 20 10 20 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 84 51 81 50 / 10 20 20 40 
Carrizozo....................... 86 58 87 55 / 30 30 20 30 
Ruidoso......................... 78 52 78 51 / 40 30 20 30 
Raton........................... 80 47 73 44 / 10 20 20 20 
Las Vegas....................... 78 47 75 45 / 10 20 20 30 
Roy............................. 78 52 74 51 / 10 20 20 30 
Clayton......................... 80 54 71 47 / 10 20 20 20 
Santa Rosa...................... 86 56 82 52 / 10 20 20 30 
Tucumcari....................... 87 58 81 54 / 10 20 20 30 
Fort Sumner..................... 88 58 85 57 / 10 20 10 40 
Clovis.......................... 86 59 81 54 / 10 20 10 20 
Portales........................ 87 61 82 55 / 10 20 10 30 
Roswell......................... 88 62 88 62 / 30 20 20 40 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$