Weather

606 
fxus65 kabq 280906 
afdabq 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
306 am MDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Discussion... 
upper level high extending eastward and elongating off of the 
eastern Pacific Ocean while a cyclonic middle level circulation 
resides just south of New Mexico. To the north...there is much 
stronger flow aloft and a vigorous trough is prognosticated to enter the 
Great Lakes region allowing a frontal boundary to plunge southward 
over the Great Plains. This frontal boundary is expected to wash 
out over the northeastern plains of the state providing a slight 
upslope component near the eastern slopes of the sangre Delaware 
cristos...and the front will act as a general focus for some 
isolated thunderstorms in this region of the forecast area. 
Confidence is rather low that storms will become very numerous in 
the northeast due to the weak nature of this boundary and also due 
to the possibility of it stalling farther north near the Colorado 
border. Elsewhere...storms will tend to favor the higher terrain in 
the southern tier of the forecast area with storms managing an 
east to west storm motion at 10 to 15 knots. Temperatures will also 
likely warm up 3 to 5 degrees in most locales due to decreased middle 
and high level cloud cover. 


Fairly similar storm coverage is expected for Friday with little 
to no activity in the northwest due to lower 
dewpoints...CAPES...and an overall lack of forcing. Surface winds 
across the northeast will have turned southerly and thus storms 
will have lost any focus near Thursday/S frontal boundary...with 
the NAM painting in excess of 1000 j/kg of cape in this area by 
Friday afternoon. 


Things begin to get a bit more dynamic by the weekend as the 
potent upper level long wave trough overtakes the West Coast. By 
this time the aforementioned middle level cyclonic circulation will 
have retrograded to the Baja California peninsula and it will eventually get 
absorbed as a baggy tag a long feature riding on the coat tails of 
the main long wave trough. To the east the upper level high will 
be over the middle Mississippi River valley...and this will induce 
a southerly component to the upper winds over New Mexico...opening 
the door to increased moisture and thunderstorm coverage. Most of 
this will favor the western half of the County Warning Area on Saturday with a 
more widespread coverage by Sunday and Monday as the long wave 
trough moves toward the central to northern rockies. For this 
package will carry scattered probability of precipitation in the south 
central...southwest...and west central areas of the County Warning Area on 
Saturday...and by Sunday will begin mention of 50 percent probability of precipitation 
covering the west central to southwestern areas of the County Warning Area. These 
will likely get upgraded as confidence grows on timing of 
approaching system. High temperatures should also respond about 5 
to 10 degrees cooler through the weekend due to increased cloud 
cover and rainfall. 


Things will dry out some by the middle of next week as the trough 
ejects northeastward and a brief lived high sets up over old 
Mexico. European model (ecmwf) is more aggressive than the GFS with next trough 
affecting the state by next weekend which would set up another wet 
and progressive scenario. 


52 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions broadly for the next 24 hours with ridge aloft 
extending from Pacific coast east across northern New Mexico. 
Upslope easterly winds will kick off afternoon shower and 
thunderstorms over the Central Mountain chain...and these will 
expand in coverage eastward toward the Texas border during the late 
afternoon. Expect gusty winds...brief excursions to MVFR and IFR 
ceilings and viz in thunderstorms...and mountain top obscuration. 


Shy 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 21z. 


&& 


Fire Weather... 
Ridge aloft from California coast to northeast New Mexico combined 
with surface trough draped over northern third of the state will 
back winds to easterly during the day today. Southward sags in the 
western end of the surface trough ahead of a cold front penetrating 
the northwest plateau and Four Corners region will introduce drier 
air in fairly weak north and northwest flow. With shift in wind 
direction...expect afternoon showers and thunderstorm initiating on 
eastern slopes of the Central Mountain chain...with expansion 
eastward into marginally unstable atmosphere over the eastern and 
northeast plains by late afternoon. Precipitable waters remaining 
around an inch...with low to middle 80s convective temperatures easily 
reached in most spots to trigger afternoon shower and thunderstorm 
action. For Friday...cold front sagging to Interstate 40 and surface 
low shifting west to northern Arizona will veer winds to southeast 
and push another surge of moisture north and west into New Mexico. 
Expecting multi day upward trend in shower coverage and intensity 
heading into the Labor Day weekend as tropical system leftovers are 
pushed northward into eastern Arizona and western New Mexico ahead 
of strong Gulf of Alaska trough digging to The Four Corners region 
by late Sunday night. 


Shy 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 91 60 91 62 / 0 5 10 20 
Gallup.......................... 88 54 87 56 / 10 5 10 20 
Grants.......................... 89 55 85 54 / 10 10 10 20 
Glenwood........................ 89 60 88 59 / 30 20 30 20 
Chama........................... 82 44 80 45 / 10 20 30 30 
Los Alamos...................... 85 54 79 54 / 10 10 20 30 
Red River....................... 75 42 73 43 / 20 20 30 30 
Taos............................ 85 50 81 52 / 10 20 20 20 
Santa Fe........................ 85 53 81 55 / 10 20 20 20 
Santa Fe Airport................ 87 57 83 56 / 10 20 20 20 
Espanola........................ 90 54 86 54 / 5 10 20 20 
Albuquerque heights............. 89 67 85 64 / 10 20 10 20 
Albuquerque valley.............. 90 63 87 62 / 5 20 10 20 
Albuquerque foothills........... 88 62 83 59 / 10 20 20 20 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 90 64 86 62 / 10 20 10 20 
Socorro......................... 90 62 87 60 / 10 20 20 20 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 82 52 79 52 / 10 20 20 20 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 86 53 79 54 / 10 20 20 20 
Carrizozo....................... 86 58 84 57 / 20 20 20 20 
Ruidoso......................... 79 53 74 50 / 20 20 30 30 
Raton........................... 83 52 80 52 / 20 20 20 20 
Las Vegas....................... 83 52 77 51 / 10 20 30 20 
Roy............................. 85 58 79 58 / 20 20 20 20 
Clayton......................... 86 58 83 59 / 20 20 30 20 
Santa Rosa...................... 90 60 85 59 / 10 10 20 20 
Tucumcari....................... 93 63 86 63 / 10 10 20 20 
Fort Sumner..................... 91 64 85 62 / 10 10 20 20 
Clovis.......................... 90 63 85 63 / 10 10 20 20 
Portales........................ 91 62 84 63 / 10 20 20 20 
Roswell......................... 91 66 86 64 / 20 20 20 20 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


52/shy 

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