Weather

557 
fxus64 kmaf 080530 
afdmaf 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas 
1230 am CDT Monday Sep 8 2008 


Discussion... 
see aviation discussion below... 


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Aviation... 
a broad area of thunderstorms and rain continues to remain west of kcnm. Expect this 
activity to weaken somewhat...but continue for the next few hours. 
Have continued the tempo for -tsra through 14z then added prob30 
through remainder of taf period for kcnm. Expect thunderstorms and rain to affect 
other sites during the day today and have included prob30/S at 
remaining taf sites at/after 18z. Could get some heavy rainfall at 
times which could reduce visible to near 5sm at times with ceilings 
bkn040. Have slight concern for some br developing along the Pecos 
River which could affect kpeq...kink...and kcnm. But not confident 
enough at this point to add into tafs. Will continue to monitor 
and amend if necessary. /13/ 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 219 PM CDT sun Sep 7 2008/ 


Discussion... 
looks like an extended period of unsettled weather is in the offing. 
For tonight and Monday a couple of upper level impulses embedded 
with an upper level trough will translate from Mexico to the 
Southern Plains. The track of this system favors southeast New 
Mexico east to the Permian Basin for the best chance (40-50 percent) 
of showers and thunderstorms through tomorrow. By Monday night 
a strong cold front will push south into the area with a shear axis 
in place...will continue at least chance probability of precipitation most areas due to 
these features. Decent precipitation chances will continue Tuesday 
as a warm advection regime becomes established just above the front 
with tropical moisture increasing from Mexico and the Pacific as a 
southwesterly flow aloft becomes established between a West Coast 
trough and a upper level ridge along the western Gulf Coast. 
This flow looks like it will continue through much of the rest of 
the forecast period with copious amounts of clouds and opportunities 
for showers and thunderstorms. For now went mainly with a broad brush 
chance pop scenario in this pattern. Obviously probability of precipitation and quantitative precipitation forecast will need 
to be fine tuned as a better handle is made on the strength and 
track of individual shortwaves moving northeastward from Mexico 
in the upper level flow. With precipitable water values forecasted 
to range from 1.5 to 2 inches per gfs40 locally heavy rainfall/and 
or flash flooding will be a concern. Went generally a couple of 
degrees below the mexmaf on high temperatures in the extended due 
to the abundance of clouds and precipitation expected. 




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Maf watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 


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13