Weather

211 
fxus65 kabq 062100 
afdabq 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
300 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2008 


Discussion... 
the back door cold front has been waffling in and out of the 
northeast corner all day...and this front could trigger an 
isolated shower or thunderstorm in the northeast this evening. 
Late tonight the front should sag to the vicinity of Tucumcari and Las 
Vegas...with low clouds and probably a return of patchy fog on the 
cool side of the boundary. Visibility could drop below 1 mile at 
times in some parts of the northeast Highlands...northeast plains 
and east Central Plains late tonight into Sunday morning. 


Beginning Sunday...precipitation chances will begin to increase 
across the forecast area...especially the south and east...as the 
subtropical high builds over the Gulf Coast and perturbations work 
their way northward around the perifery of this ridge over New 
Mexico. Models recently picked up on one such perturbation that 
could move northward into south central or southeast areas Sunday 
afternoon...and later shifts may need to increase probability of precipitation in these 
areas as we gain confidence in this solution. GFS also indicates 
that another perturbation may move northward into the southwest or 
west central mountains on Monday...but we are keeping probability of precipitation in the 
isolated category until we see more continuity with this feature. 


A back door cold front is also expected to plunge southward 
through the eastern plains on Monday...and this feature could 
trigger some strong storms given the subtropical moisture and 
relatively warm temperatures that will already be in place. 
Mondays front should increase moisture and low level convergence 
as it pushes Alabama of the way to the Continental Divide Monday night. 
This will set the stage for an active day of convection 
Tuesday...and possibly also Wednesday...as an upper level low 
pressure system establishes on the California coast and ejects 
shortwaves across central and western New Mexico in southwest flow 
aloft. The latter half of the work week may als be convectively 
active until the upper low in the west swings across New Mexico 
and dries the area out. It is not clear when this may happen. 


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&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions are expected over the County Warning Area through the evening hours. 
A few storms may develop this afternoon and will be relegated to the 
southern mts as well as the far NE plains. Activity in the south will be 
diurnally driven while a weak surface front invades the NE plains later 
this afternoon/eve. Stratus will develop behind the front tonight... 
but will be confined to an area north of a klvs to ktcc line. Much 
of the activity will be IFR in nature. Forecaster confidence on the 
development of stratus is high. Ktcc should have a better threat for 
restricting conditions and thus continued a sct008 mention for now. 
Ceilings could remain east of klvs and future shifts may need to monitor 
taf for possible inclusion. Stratus will be slow to erode again Sun 
morning...but VFR skies will return by 18z. An upper level disturbance 
in Mexico will migrate northward on sun and increase precipitation chances... 
particularly in the southern mts as well as the eastern plains. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 09z. Dporter 


&& 


Fire weather... 
there is an outside chance for storms to develop across the southern mts 
as well as the NE plains this afternoon/eve...otherwise expect quiet 
weather conditions across the state. Similar to the past few days... 
the northwest quadrant of nm will remain the driest part of the area 
as dewpoints crater to the upper teens during peak heating. This will 
result in poor humidity recoveries along and west of the Rio Grande 
Valley. An upper level disturbance in Mexico should migrate into the 
state tomorrow afternoon...increasing precipitation chance across the southern mts 
and the eastern plains...consisting of a mixture of wet/dry cells. A surface 
boundary will plunge through the eastern plains Monday afternoon/eve. This 
will increase low level moisture in its wake and provide some relief 
to the poor humidities...particularly between the Rio Grande Valley 
and the Continental Divide. A wetter regime may evolve across nm for 
the middle portion of the upcoming work week as moisture is advected 
north from Mexico. 


Dporter 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 48 89 50 89 / 0 0 0 0 
Gallup.......................... 41 86 44 85 / 0 10 0 5 
Grants.......................... 39 87 46 86 / 0 10 5 5 
Glenwood........................ 50 88 52 88 / 10 10 20 10 
Chama........................... 34 75 39 77 / 0 5 5 0 
Los Alamos...................... 50 83 47 82 / 0 5 10 5 
Red River....................... 33 72 35 73 / 0 5 5 5 
Taos............................ 39 82 41 80 / 0 5 5 5 
Santa Fe........................ 48 83 53 82 / 0 10 10 5 
Santa Fe Airport................ 50 85 51 85 / 0 10 10 5 
Espanola........................ 44 87 47 87 / 0 5 10 5 
Albuquerque heights............. 62 88 62 87 / 0 10 20 5 
Albuquerque valley.............. 56 90 57 89 / 0 10 20 5 
Albuquerque foothills........... 58 85 58 86 / 0 10 20 5 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 59 90 60 89 / 0 10 10 5 
Socorro......................... 52 89 58 89 / 5 10 20 10 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 50 81 49 81 / 0 10 20 10 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 51 84 51 83 / 0 10 20 10 
Carrizozo....................... 56 86 58 86 / 5 20 20 20 
Ruidoso......................... 49 77 52 77 / 10 20 30 20 
Raton........................... 46 80 45 74 / 10 10 10 10 
Las Vegas....................... 47 78 47 76 / 0 10 20 10 
Roy............................. 52 77 54 77 / 5 10 20 10 
Clayton......................... 53 77 54 72 / 10 10 20 10 
Santa Rosa...................... 55 86 56 81 / 5 10 20 10 
Tucumcari....................... 59 87 59 82 / 5 10 20 20 
Fort Sumner..................... 59 88 60 85 / 5 10 20 10 
Clovis.......................... 59 86 59 82 / 5 10 10 20 
Portales........................ 59 87 61 84 / 5 10 10 20 
Roswell......................... 64 90 64 90 / 5 10 20 10 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


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