Weather

640 
fxus64 kepz 271950 
afdepz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm 
150 PM MDT Wednesday Aug 27 2008 


Synopsis... 
south and southeast winds will transport moist unstable air into 
New Mexico and western Texas through the weekend while upper level 
disturbances move into the region. As a result scattered showers 
and thunderstorms will occur with areas of heavy rains possible. 


&& 


Discussion... 
models showing an evolving weather pattern which strongly suggests 
period of wet weather into the weekend. Currently a weak but 
rather large upper low is spinning over northwestern Mexico while 
ridge aloft is elongated on an east west axis across nm-Colorado 
border region. Resultant flow includes a deep southeast wind with 
abundant moisture inflow from the Gulf of Mexico pushing 
precipitable water amounts above 1.4 inches most areas this 
afternoon. Convective available potential energy this afternoon are around 1000 j/kg with little 
forcing but also little or no inhibition...thus expect heating and 
moisture will generate scattered convection into this evening. In 
addition models hint at weak vorticity center moving up from 
Mexico overnight. While instability and shear indicate low severe 
weather potential abundant moisture could support isolated storms 
producing heavier rains. 


Models show agreement on larger scale regional trends into the 
weekend. Upper low will drift very slowly to the southwest into 
Baja California through Friday while ridge axis remains across Colorado-New 
Mexico border area. At low levels broad troughing will also cover 
Arizona/northwestern Mexico with high pressure into Southern 
Plains. Pressure-height configuration will sustain deep east to 
southeast flow with trajectories off the Gulf of Mexico into the 
County Warning Area. Precipitable water will remain above 1.3 most of the period 
with possible embedded waves initiating scattered convection. Also 
of concern is southeast winds around 30 knots by Friday evening 
which will provide strong moisture flux and favorable shear for 
upstream propagation. Thus situation should be monitored. 


Potential for heavier rains may increase Saturday as upper low 
phases with approaching Pacific trough while ridge translates 
east. This will place County Warning Area in deep southerly flow with high amounts 
of tropical moisture inflow. Thus risk of heavy rains may exist 
into the Holiday weekend with approach of deeper trough possibly 
proving sufficient shear and lift for greater risk of severe 
weather Sunday and Monday. 


&& 


Aviation...valid 27/0000z-28/0000z 
widespread rain showers/thunderstorms and rain activity across the region this evening into 
tonight will cause large areas of MVFR conditions and occasional 
IFR conditions in and near showers and thunderstorms. Scattered-broken 
middle-level cloud decks will likely remain across the area through 
Thursday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop again 
Thursday afternoon...especially across far southern New Mexico. 




&& 


Fire weather... 
an upper level disturbance and tropical moisture associated with 
the remains of Julio will continue to cause scattered showers and 
thunderstorms into tonight. High pressure building over northern 
Arizona and northern New Mexico will reduce activity over northern 
parts of our area Thursday...but scattered thunderstorms are still 
likely in the south. Southeasterly flow off the Gulf of Mexico will 
bring a significant increase in low and middle level moisture Friday 
through the weekend. The increased moisture and an upper level 
trough moving in from the west will cause widespread showers and 
thunderstorms Friday night through Monday. 


&& 






Preliminary point temps/pops... 
El Paso 68 91 70 89 67 / 30 30 20 30 30 
Sierra Blanca Texas 60 88 61 87 58 / 30 30 20 40 30 
Las Cruces 67 91 69 89 67 / 30 30 20 30 30 
Alamogordo 65 88 66 87 63 / 30 20 20 20 20 
Cloudcroft 47 70 48 69 45 / 30 30 20 30 30 
Truth or Consequences 65 88 66 87 64 / 30 20 20 20 20 
Silver City 59 84 60 82 58 / 30 30 30 30 30 
Deming 65 91 66 89 64 / 30 30 20 30 30 
Lordsburg 64 90 65 88 63 / 30 30 30 30 30 


&& 


Epz watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


05 rogash/park