Weather

578 
fxus61 kokx 071112 
afdokx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Upton New York 
712 am EDT Tuesday Oct 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
cool high pressure will build over the region today and then pass to 
the south by Wednesday. Milder temperatures along with clouds and 
possibly light precipitation is expected to return Thursday into 
Friday as a southwesterly flow set up. Fair weather is expected 
through the weekend at this time...although unsettled weather will 
remain just to our south...so stay tuned. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
strong fast flow barrels into the Pacific northwest as seen on water 
vapor imagery...and this energy will play a big role in overall 
pattern. As trough to our east departs...ridge builds at all levels 
through the day today. Middle west trough will be influenced by the 
northwestern energy...but the aforementioned trough remains well 
to the west today. As such...sunny skies can be expected. Followed 
a MOS blend with regard to temperatures...but utilized high 
temporal resolution lav numbers for the hourly details. 


It will be a chilly start to the day as areas of frost cover the 
ground across much of the interior. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday/... 
center of high pressure slides over the area. Ridge blocks any 
clouds from making eastward progress...and clear skies along with 
light winds will allow temperatures away from NYC to plummet. 
Potential ideal radiational cooling night in store for the 
region...and feel mav numbers have a better handle on this. 
NAM/met numbers appear too high. As such...expect the development of 
areas to widespread frost across the interior...and Pine barrens of 
eastern Long Island. Some locations to the north and west will drop 
below freezing. Freeze warning/frost advisories posted for interior. 


For Wednesday...return flow sets up as the high passes to our south. 
Middle west trough flattens a bit with most of the energy remaining to 
the north in Canada. High clouds begin to encroach later 
Wednesday and Wednesday night as flow flattens with the approach 
of the trough. More clouds and possible showers expected Thursday 
as the trough and low level frontal Boundary Pass by. 


Temperatures rebound nicely Wednesday through Thursday in southwest 
flow. Followed MOS blend. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday night through Monday/... 
looks like some consensus developing in medium range models...keeping 
upper low embedded in large scale ridge to the south...and surface 
low/trough to the south. High pressure builds to the north...and it 
now looks like drier air moves in as ec/GFS/ggem indicate. Will 
lean toward less clouds...and lower probability of precipitation through the weekend as a 
result. 


Confidence still low with regard to forecast details...and it would 
not take much to change this forecast as wet weather not far away to 
the south. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Tuesday through Saturday/... 
VFR through the period. High pressure continues to build toward 
the area today. Skies will be clear with unlimited visibilities. 
Winds will be from the north/northwest this morning...then 
become a bit more westerly late this afternoon as the center of 
the surface builds west of the terminals. Tonight...winds will 
become light and variable. 


Outlook for 12z Wednesday through Saturday... 
VFR through Thursday. A slow moving storm system will possibly 
bring sub-VFR conditions from Thursday night into 
Saturday...depending on its exact track. A low confidence forecast 
in the extended for the weekend. 


&& 


Marine... 
high pressure builds over the area waters today. Expect a northerly 
flow today...then southerly flow develops on Wednesday as the high 
moves further south. Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory conditions 
through Thursday. 


For the long term...forecast reflects quiet conditions from Thursday 
night and beyond...but confidence is low beginning Friday night for a 
weak low pressure system moving up the coast. If this does 
occur...Small Craft Advisory conditions in the form of hazardous seas could occur Friday 
night into Sat night. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
no major hydrology concerns through the forecast period at this time. Some light 
precipitation is expected Thursday. 


&& 


Okx watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...frost advisory until 9 am EDT this morning for ctz005>008. 
Frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am EDT Wednesday for ctz005>008. 
New York...frost advisory until 9 am EDT this morning for nyz067-068. 
Frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am EDT Wednesday for nyz069-070. 
Freeze warning from 2 am to 8 am EDT Wednesday for nyz067-068. 
New Jersey...frost advisory until 9 am EDT this morning for njz002. 
Freeze warning from 2 am to 8 am EDT Wednesday for njz002. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...precipitable water 
near term...precipitable water 
short term...precipitable water 
long term... 
aviation...British Columbia 
marine...British Columbia 
hydrology...precipitable water