Weather

978 
fxus61 kphi 101928 
afdphi 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey 
328 PM EDT Friday Oct 10 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will dominate the weather through the early part of 
next week. A cold front is forecast to drop down from the 
northwest and approach the region Wednesday and then the front 
will drift slowly south through the area Thursday and Friday. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
dry air has spread over the region as evidenced by The Drop in the 
dewpoints into the 30s and 40s, with some upper 20s in the 
Poconos. Although dewpoints will increase a bit tonight as we lose 
the mixing of dry air down from aloft, they will still remain low. 
For this reason, I have left out any mention of fog tonight. The 
forecast lows will be a couple degrees lower than the mav guidance due 
to the low dewpoints. 


Frost was also left out of the forecast intentionally as low 
temperatures should stay in the 40s where the growing season is 
still active. 


&& 


Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/... 
it will continue dry through Sunday night as dry high pressure 
continues to dominate surface and aloft. Forecast model soundings dont support 
much in the way of clouds either. Diurnal temperature ranges will 
also be large as surface nighttime inversions are large due to the dry 
air, while temperatures warm each day due to full sunshine and 
subsidence. Mav temperatures generally look OK. 


&& 


Long term /Monday through Friday/... 
the dry pattern continues Monday and Tuesday as high pressure 
continues to dominate. However, the upper ridge slowly gets 
suppressed southward. Even so, dry weather will continue with warm 
daytime highs and cool nights. 


On Wednesday, a cold front will approach from the northwest. Some higher 
clouds associated with the frontal system should start spreading 
over the area, and there might even be some showers north. The 
front then sags slowly to the south Thursday and Friday with more 
clouds over the region and the threat of showers spreading 
throughout the area. Additionally, on Friday, there could be an 
area of low pressure moving along the front that could allow for a 
steadier rain during the day. The airmass will continue to be 
relatively mild, although cloud cover will shrink the diurnal 
range with highs temperatures a bit lower each day and nighttime 
lows a bit higher. Even so, temperatures should still be above 
normal. 


&& 


Aviation /19z Friday through Wednesday/... 
high pressure will make for VFR conditions through the taf period, 
with the possible exception of some brief MVFR visibilities around daybreak 
Saturday. This is by no means certain, since dew points were 
dropping quite a lot this afternoon. No ceilings are forecast. 


Outlook... 
high pressure is forecast to influence the region into Tuesday, with 
a dry cold front possibly dropping down from the north on Monday. 
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period. 


&& 


Marine... 
high pressure, located over the southern Great Lakes region early 
this morning, will build slowly to the east. The high should 
influence the coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware through the 
weekend. A cold front is forecast to drop down from the north on 
Monday. 


Conditions are forecast to remain below Small Craft Advisory 
criteria through Tuesday. 


&& 


Phi watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New Jersey...none. 
Delaware...none. 
Maryland...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...stauber 
near term...stauber 
short term...stauber 
long term...stauber 
aviation...delisi 
marine...delisi