Weather

691 
fxus61 kbox 110823 
afdbox 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 
423 am EDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will settle over the region bringing dry and pleasant 
weather with above normal temperatures into early next week. A cold 
front will move through New England Wednesday and bring a chance of 
showers. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
high pressure continues to build into southern New England...keeping 
cloudy skies out of the area. This will continue through the day 
allowing temperatures to rise to slightly above normal values. 
Winds will be light enough today that a sea breeze will likely 
develop along the East Coast of Massachusetts. Did not make any 
substantial changes to the near term forecast. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Sunday/... 
high pressure will remain in control over southern New England 
through Sunday. More of the pleasant weather experienced over the 
past couple of days is expected. Clear skies...no storms...light 
winds...and warm temperatures will be the rule. Overnight...these 
same conditions will result in cooler temperatures. However...for 
the most part...overnight lows will be right around normal. There 
is a slight possibility of frost in northwestern mass and 
southwestern New Hampshire but this will be fairly localized. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday night through Friday/... 
high pressure ridge lingers over the northeast early week...with the 
upper ridge axis to our west. This will make room for a shortwave to 
dive through the Maritimes and push a backdoor cold front through our 
area on Monday. The timing on this front has slowed over the past few 
model runs. The 12z Friday ecwmf even held the upper ridge axis 
farther east and as a result stalled the front over US. The 00z runs 
continue to suggest the front will reach New York...so while frontal passage 
will bring a period of clouds we should see clearing Monday afternoon 
as the front moves west. 


Maritime high pressure brings a cooler east flow Monday afternoon 
into Tuesday. Current surface forecasts move the surface ridge axis 
over southern New England by Tuesday. So while we start the period 
with an east wind...the core of this wind shifts south with time. 
This area of air moving over the water is where we would most likely 
expect marine clouds to form...and as it shifts to our south we will 
go with a mostly clear sky forecast. 


The ridge breaks down and moves east of US Tuesday- 
Wednesday...pushing the backdoor front east of US as a warm front 
Tuesday and making room for a cold front to move through midweek. 
Model solutions on these actions are now a little slower than past 
runs. The European model (ecmwf)...which was faster with cold frontal passage previously 
/Tuesday evening vs Wednesday or Wednesday night/ has now come more 
into line with the GFS and other models. We will use a general 
consensus and bring the front through on late Wednesday or early 
Wednesday night. Moisture will be limited but with enough support for 
chance probability of precipitation for light showers. 


High pressure returns dry weather Thursday. Both the GFS and ecwmf 
bring low pressure to the northeast coast Friday night. While the 
confidence in this timing is low...after all it is late day 7...the 
indication would be increasing clouds with a chance of rain at night. 


&& 


Aviation /08z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
high pressure stationed over the area means VFR conditions will 
continue through Sunday. Only exception could be some patchy fog 
tonight that may lower visibilities to MVFR. 


Outlook...Sunday through Tuesday... 


Mainly VFR conditions expected. 


&& 


Marine... 
high pressure will remain over the waters through Sunday. Seas are 
expected to be in the 2-3ft range with winds in the 10-15kt range. 
No headlines are expected. 


Outlook...Sunday through Tuesday... 


High pressure centered over the northeast for much of the period. A 
back door cold front moves across the waters early Monday morning. 
Northeast flow behind this front may be strong enough to deliver a 
few Small Craft Advisory wind gusts and 5 foot seas Monday night and Tuesday. This 
would mainly be on the outer waters and some of the waters near 
Nantucket. Even if this happens...it would be a borderline event. 


&& 


Box watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Rhode Island...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...wtb/rlg 
near term...rlg 
short term...rlg 
long term...wtb 
aviation...wtb/rlg 
marine...wtb/rlg