Weather

856 
fxus63 kgid 071646 
afdgid 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Hastings NE 
1146 am CDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Aviation...18z taf. For the initial few hours...isolated showers 
in northern Nebraska should remain north of kgri. Cloud cover will 
thicken during the evening and overnight as an upper level 
disturbance approaches. Lift increases and chances for rain 
showers will also increase after 06z with rain continuing into 
the morning on Monday. Thunderstorms are expected to remain south 
of kgri tonight. Cloud cover will be in the MVFR to IFR category 
and visibilities will be in the same categories due to the rain 
and the fog. Winds will generally remain from a northeasterly 
direction. The precipitation is expected to wind down near 18z or shortly 
thereafter. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 422 am CDT sun Sep 7 2008/ 


Discussion...near term is issue is the fickle fog forecast. Most 
of the County warning forecast area has wrestled with low clouds and fog tonight. Visibilities 
down to one quarter mile...then up to 6 miles. Fog seems to be 
hit and miss...and favoring low lying areas...but still pretty 
thick none-the-less. Currently 6 automated stations reporting 
1/4 to 1/2 mile visibilities...as are Columbus...Albion and Concordia. 
Issued the dense fog advisory earlier...and feel that is still 
best at this point given the potential for any one location to 
experience dense fog at any time. 


Regarding rain potential tonight...there is good agreement amongst 
models and neighboring forecast offices regarding the surety of the 
event. All the factors are there...large frontogenetic forcing... 
good qg lift...very favorable right rear quadrant of h25 jet...and its 
all centered on 12z Monday. See no reason not to push probability of precipitation to the 
80 to 100 percent range...with periods/numerous showers and 
scattered thunderstorms expected from just after midnight Sunday 
night through midday Monday. Several locations will likely receive 
an inch or more of rain from this system. Rainfall will rapidly 
end as the afternoon wears on Monday. Temperatures Monday will go 
nowhere with 50s the preferred number. 


Continued to include the risk for some fog late Monday night and 
early Tuesday...as high pressure settles over the area. Axis of 
high pressure nearly over the County warning forecast area. Should mention that some 
doubts as to fog coverage area are coming into play...namely lack 
of any sign in numerical guidance...and sometimes dry air is just 
too much to keep lower extent of atmosphere saturated. That may 
the case late Monday night with dewpoints around 40 degrees. 


Few changes were made Tuesday and beyond. NAM/GFS both suggesting 
low clouds will erupt up into the County warning forecast area late Tuesday night and 
Wednesday. Have included much more cloud cover during the period. 
The latest 06z NAM continues this idea...though possibly slower... 
and suggests the first half of the day Wednesday well be spent 
battling clouds for sunshine. Shortwave ridge on Wednesday leads 
ME to think most of the day will be dry. Made no changes to the 
small precipitation risk already in there...but next shift may 
want to shove that back closer to the evening hours. 


&& 


Gid watches/warnings/advisories... 
NE...none. 
Kansas...none. 


&& 


$$