Weather

592 
fxus63 klbf 291958 
afdlbf 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service North Platte NE 
259 PM CDT Friday Aug 29 2008 


Discussion... 
overnight...southerly flow will persist across the region. As 
moisture advects northward...will have to monitor for possible low 
stratus development across the southwestern County Warning Area...although this will 
primarily affect northwestern Kansas. 


Through 00z Tuesday...upstream trough will dig into the Great Basin. A 
tight pressure gradient develops with winds to increase to 25 to 35 
miles per hour at times across the north central. Highs also to reach 88 
southeast to 94 northwest. Looks to be a potential for a low end 
Wind Advisory and middle shift may need to issue if conditions look a 
bit windier. South winds will be even stronger and more widespread 
Sunday and will have to monitor Sunday as well for possible Wind 
Advisory. Highs similar Sunday from 90 to 95. 


For Labor Day...another warm day with highs in the middle/upper 80s and 
breezy. Surface front should reach from western South Dakota into central Wyoming. Monday 
night...the front should at least reach into northwestern County warning forecast area. Will retain 
20-35 probability of precipitation Monday night. 


Extended days 4 through 7...models are in good agreement digging a 
trough into the Pacific northwest early in the week. Models then 
differ on what to do with the trough for the remainder of the week. 
European model (ecmwf) and UKMET tend to keep more of the energy back over the 
Pacific northwest...meanwhile the GFS lifts the energy northeastward 
into Canada with a ridge then developing across the northern 
rockies/Pacific northwest. National guidance seems to favor more of a 
European model (ecmwf)/UKMET solution...so will tend to follow and slow progression 
of the front into our area. Also have extended precipitation chances out 
through Wednesday...but will leave the rest dry with such model 
spread by the end of the period. Mass fields may also eventually be 
affected by Gustav...as models differ on track of what will be left 
of the system. European model (ecmwf) furthest west due to a slower progression of 
western trough. It actually brings the system up through Kansas and 
soaks eastern Nebraska. 


&& 


Aviation... 
visual flight rules expected at terminals klbf and kvtn tonight 
through 18z Saturday. Surface high pressure will build east 
providing return flow on the High Plains. Few high clouds will 
extend north into the Panhandle that will have little impact to 
areas east. The south winds will strengthen on Saturday but expected 
to remain below Wind Advisory criteria. 


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Lbf watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


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$$ 


Roberg(short term)/taylor(extended)/keck(aviation)