Weather

355 
fxus63 klbf 112018 
afdlbf 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service North Platte NE 
318 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Synopsis... 
994mb surface low centered over northwest Colorado. Upper low over 
Great Basin as seen in infrared. Norbert over Baja California with a moisture plume 
from Baja California into Central Plains as seen in WV. 


&& 


Discussion... 
models in good agreement in near term and have used a blend for 
the forecast. As mature cyclone approaches from the west strong 
warm air advection will increase temperatures across forecast area through the 
night with no diurnal swing...nearly steady temperatures in the 
eastern Nebraska Panhandle in the upper 30s. Have included a mix 
overnight. Near the boundary running from northeast Nebraska to 
South West Kansas isolated T possible through early morning with middle 
level instability. Focus will shift to the Panhandle over night with 
140 knots upper jet and increasing lift as upper low approaches. 
Precipitation so spread east through the day on Sunday with 
abundant moisture precipitable waters  at least 2 Standard deviations above have 
generally followed HPC quantitative precipitation forecast. Hayes Center to Ainsworth and east 
over north central Nebraska as cold front of mature system focuses 
on western and north central Nebraska. Skies clearing northwest on 
Sunday night Monday morning freez is highly likely. Will watch 
later periods. Off hour model has been bringing wave out of 
bottom of trough Tuesday. Other models do not support this and 
have discounted and left forecast dry after Monday with 
temperatures normal for season in nearly zonal flow. 


&& 


Aviation... 
with a large upper level storm system located west of the region...an 
unsettled weather pattern can be expected through the next 24 hours. 
North/northeasterly winds will persist over the region during 
Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile...warm and moist air will continue to 
Glide over the top of a surface front located immediately east and south 
of western Nebraska...aiding in shower development. By 00z 
Sunday...the potential for thunderstorms will greatly increase at 
both the kvtn and klbf terminals...as surface low pressure rapidly 
strengthens over eastern Colorado. As this occurs...surface winds are 
expected to become east/southeasterly...maintaining an influx of 
rich low level moisture and high surface relative humidity. IFR conditions 
will generally persist through the overnight hours...with LIFR 
conditions possible at kvtn. Then...as the western storm system 
begins to lift northeast into the plains...a surface cold front will 
advance east across the region...causing surface winds to become 
west/northwesterly and cloud bases to rise. 


&& 


Lbf watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Garner/power