Weather

587 
fxus62 kmhx 111941 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
341 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will build into the area from the north through Sunday 
as a trough of low pressure weakens S of the area while drifting 
inland. The high will build over the area early in the week and 
continue over the southeast states through midweek. A cold front is 
expected to approach the area from the northwest late next week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/... 
as of 2pm Saturday...rain just doesnt want to end near the southern 
Outer Banks and Crystal Coast this afternoon as a lingering surface 
trough combines forces with diffluent flow aloft...between an upper ridge 
extending northwest through the area and the lingering upper low just off the 
SC/Georgia coast. Will extend categorical probability of precipitation a few more hours till 
21z here and still have a very steep gradient of probability of precipitation with no precipitation 
wording far northern counties. Guidance is generally in agreement that 
the precipitation will taper off from north to S through the evening but kept 
in a good chance for the Carteret/Onslow through late evening based on 
current radar trends...and higher likely to low end categorical probability of precipitation 
southern coastal waters. Think by Sun morning any lingering showers 
should be offshore as the cutoff low to our SW retrogrades towards 
the Florida Big Bend and NE Gomex...allowing ridging to hopefully 
and finally get better established to our NW/N. Temperatures will likely be 
coolest (u50s) far northern part where dewpoints in the u50s are 
filtering in...but probably wont cool much more than l60s along the 
South Coast with lingering cloud cover. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Monday night/... 
still expecting a dry Sunday although cant totally rule out a 
shallow shower or two coming in off the water with NE flow...especially 
early southern coastal areas. Expect some lingering low cloud cover especially 
southern half where deepest moisture is anticipated. This should 
gradually diminish through evening as lower Theta-E air advects into 
the area. Otherwise the short term will be dominated by rather deep 
ridging gradually building over the eastern Seaboard which will 
allow for the beginning of a dry period with warming temperatures. Highs 
tomorrow with a bit more sun should be allowed to warm into the u70s 
to near 80 inland...while the northern obx struggles to get out of the 
l-m70s again with onshore flow off SSTs around 70. Slightly warmer 
on Monday with mostly clear skies anticipated. Less cloud cover and a 
bit lighter winds should allow lows to range from the l-m50s inland 
Sun night to m60s obx...then a couple degrees cooler Monday night with a 
better chance to decouple as the high builds over US. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/... 
the deep...strong ridge of high pressure will build over the southeast 
states through midweek. This is expected to allow dry weather to persist 
in addition to well above normal temperatures on Tue/Wed...with extended MOS 
guidance showing temperatures more suitable for a month or two ago. Not 
feeling comfortable forecasting 90 degree highs for middle October but 
based on forecasted 850 temperatures and low level thicknesses...M-u80s 
surely are not out of the question inland. The ridging is still 
expected to slowly break down through the second part of next week 
and eventually get replaced by troughing over the east. This is 
expected to allow a frontal system to affect the area late in the 
week or by early next weekend...but with differences in the timing 
and intensity of the models only showing a silent 20 pop for Friday/Sat 
for now. 




&& 


Aviation /20z Saturday through Thursday/... 
predominant MVFR conditions prevail across the terminals this 
afternoon with continued influence from a surface low well to the south. 
Precipitation has been confined to the eastern terminals today but has been 
more persistent than previously thought. Will keep mention of rain showers 
over eastern terminals through 02z with dry conditions thereafter. 
MVFR conditions expected to remain over the terminals through early 
evening with western terminals (kpvg and kiso)improving to VFR. 
Forecast time sections...soundings and Eta model MOS guidance indicate 
potential IFR stratus development tonight...especially eastern 
terminals as light NE flow keeps low levels very moist. Somewhat 
drier air will filter into the western terminals overnight but still 
could see some scattered stratus develop. Will forecast IFR ceilings after 06z 
at kpgv and kewn and just mention scattered stratus over kpgv and kiso. 
Conditions improve to VFR on sun but lifting of stratus will likely 
result in some scattered shallow cumulus through early afternoon. 


VFR conditions will be predominant Sun night through Thursday with high 
pressure in control. Mostly clear skies could lead to periods of fog 
overnight with decoupling. 


&& 


Marine... 
as of middle afternoon...NE winds 15 to 20 knots continue over area waters 
with some higher gusts over central coastal waters. Seas are mainly 
4 to 6 feet throughout. Surface ridge will build south across the area 
over the weekend with moderate NE flow continuing over the area as 
gradient remains pinched between the southward building ridge and 
weakening low pressure to the south. Small Craft Advisory will continue over the coastal 
waters through early Monday...mainly for seas but southern waters will 
likely see 20-25 knots surface winds at times through sun. 


Surface high pressure will dominate the area Monday through middle week as middle/upper 
level ridge builds over the middle Atlantic. Light north/northwest winds will 
prevail through the period with seas mainly 2 to 4 feet. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 12 PM EDT Monday for amz152-154-156- 
158. 
Small Craft Advisory until 5 am EDT Monday for amz150. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...mw 
near term...mw 
short term...mw 
long term...mw 
aviation...jw 
marine...jw 

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