Weather

593 
fxus62 kmhx 071342 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
942 am EDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
a weak trough of low pressure will continue over the region today 
through Monday. A cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday and 
cross the region Wednesday. The front will stall S of the area Thursday and 
Friday. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
latest upper air analysis showing a weak 500 mb trough over central 
North Carolina this morning. This trough...coupled with high 
dewpoints and good instability...will kick off widely scattered 
thunderstorms this afternoon...especially along the seabreeze. Made minor 
adjustments to current forecast...but overall database looks to be in 
good shape. 


&& 


Short term /Monday through Monday night/... 
little change in airmass this period with middle/upper level ridge continue over 
or just S of area. This will limit forcing for precipitation and expect 
only isolated activity Monday afternoon that will linger into Monday night. Will 
remain muggy with lows mainly 70 to 75 and highs Monday continue in the 
upper 80s to around 90. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/... 
cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday and cross the area Wednesday 
before stalling just to the S. This front will be focus for rain showers 
and thunderstorms and rain with chance probability of precipitation expected Tuesday through most of the rest of 
the week. At this point the best covering of precipitation across the region 
would be Wednesday as the front crosses with lots of moisture along and 
behind the front. Later in the week the best covering of precipitation 
expected to over southern tier closer to the stalled front. Temperatures will 
be cooler middle week with front to the S and plenty of 
clouds...highs will be mainly in the lower 80s. Late in the week 
as heights slowly increase and front washes out to the S will see 
temperatures climb back into the middle to upper 80s. 




&& 


Aviation /14z Sunday through Thursday/... 
light SW winds at or below 5 knots expected for the balance of the day as 
weak surface boundary remains draped over the area. Weak surface high will 
reside over the area tonight with winds decoupling. MOS guidance 
is indicating LIFR visibilities developing tonight and feel this fairly 
confident that the terminals will see a fair amount of fog 
overnight with the high overhead and slightly cooler temperatures 
expected. 


Mainly VFR expected Monday through Wednesday but a cold front will move 
across the terminals Tuesday night and early Wednesday with periods of 
MVFR conditions possible. 


&& 


Marine... 
in a bit of a transition period today as the seas generated by 
Hanna subside...but are expected to pick back up with Ike swell 
energy later. Already picking up on some gradually increasing 
swell from distant major Hurricane Ike at some buoys. For 
today...the seas have dropped with winds light and variable. Will 
continue Small Craft Advisory for central leg as seas unlikely to drop below 6ft. 


The coastal waters will be glassy between swells...but the surf is 
expected to become increasingly more rough. The waves in the surf 
zone will range from 3 feet up north to 8 feet in the central beaches 
today...all depending on beach orientation to the swell which is 
southeast. Though some beaches might not see notable waves early 
today...the encroaching Ike swells will gradually increase them 
through Monday afternoon. It looks like a scenario where the breaking 
waves could be higher than the average sea heights over the 
coastal waters. Areas most likely to be impacted will be Shoals 
where wave heights can be significantly larger...and inlets where 
long period swells could create dangerous conditions. 




A cold front is forecast to move across the waters Tuesday night 
and early Wednesday. May see enough of a surge behind the front to 
result in a period of small craft seas mainly over northern 
waters. 


Rip currents... 
will continue with a high threat of rip currents all beaches today 
given continuation of long period swell energy and the day after 
effect. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...high surf advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ncz095-098- 
103-104. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT Monday for amz152-154-156. 


&& 


$$