Weather

060 
fxus62 kilm 111928 
afdilm 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington NC 
328 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Synopsis... 
a trough of low pressure will remain along the southeast United States 
coast through Sunday. High pressure will build into the Carolinas 
from the north Sunday...before settling over North Carolina by 
Tuesday. The high will weaken as it moves offshore by middle-week as 
a weak trough develops across the Carolinas Thursday and a cold front 
approaches from the northwest on early Friday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/... 
as of 3 PM...middle level closed low pressure system currently off the 
South Carolina/Georgia coast will continue to move to the 
west/southwest through the late afternoon/overnight hours. At the 
surface...a tight gradient exists between the sometimes closed 
circulation off the East Coast of Florida and strong high pressure 
to the north. 


Will continue to trend down probability of precipitation ever so slowly from the north to 
the south as the latest Omega fields through 500mb keep the stronger 
values off the coast and moving south with the middle level feature. 
Categorical values will continue along the coast for the 
remainder of the afternoon trending down to likely this evening and 
finally to chance by early Sunday am. Based on the latest radar 
trends areas west of I-95 should see only an occasional sprinkle. 
Have also trimmed back quantitative precipitation forecast as any significant amounts should remain 
off the coast. 


Regarding overnight lows...feel the GFS is a bit fast on clearing 
things out from the north and went a couple of degrees above 
guidance in these areas. Otherwise...guidance is very close along 
the coast and southern areas with a consensus in the lower 60s. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday/... 
as of 3 PM Saturday...the upper level low continues to drift and 
is still forecasted to drift to the southwest as high pressure 
builds over the Ohio Valley. As this high build into the region 
the area of rain will be suppressed to the south and by Tuesday 
will be well south of the region. By Thursday skies will clear through 
the period. Temperatures are expected to warm into the lower 80s 
by Monday with lows in the middle to upper 70s. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... 
as of 3 PM Saturday...a north to NE flow averaging 10 knots on Tuesday 
on the east side of high pressure expected. Stronger flow during the 
short term will still have some residual 4 feet seas along the 
outside of the forecast area but in a diminishing state. Seas continue 
to subside Tuesday night into Wednesday and may very well stay capped at 2 
feet for the rest of the long term. A weak and dissipating trough 
over land could turn the light NE winds to northwest by Wednesday night or 
Thursday. 




&& 


Aviation /19z Saturday through Thursday/... 
upper low has moved west to near chs in the past couple of hours. As 
the upper low continues to be shunted to the southwest by high 
pressure building in from the north expect precipitation to slowly 
decrease from north to south and ceilings to improve from north to 
south through this taf period. Ceilings are currently predominate 
MVFR although ceilings continue to drop to near IFR associated with 
showers at the coastal terminals. Radar trends show heaviest 
precipitation offshore dissipating to light rain as it moves 
onshore. Latest forecasts indicating heaviest precipitation will remain 
offshore thus will be optimistic in tafs and advertise continued 
predominate MVFR conditions improving to VFR this evening at 
ilm/lbt/Flo and after 06z at cre/myr. 


Outlook through Wednesday...VFR expected...except for possibly some 
early morning MVFR/IFR visibilities around sunrise each morning. 


&& 


Marine... 
near term /through tonight/... 
as of 9 am Saturday...buoy observations showing winds on the lower 
range of forecast values with most values near 20 knots. Will 
continue to monitor and may need to adjust down values with midday 
update. Seas look OK. 




Short term /Sunday through Monday/... 
as of 3 PM Saturday...northeast flow to continue for the entire 
period as trough along the coast dissipates and high pressure 
builds over the Ohio Valley. Winds are forecast to slowly dissipate 
and seas will slowly fall by Monday. Wavewatch indicates seas are 
not expected to fall below 6 feet until Monday evening...therefore... 
have extended the Small Craft Advisory until Monday evening. 




Long term /Monday night through Wednesday/... 
as of 3 PM Saturday...look for high pressure inland to dominate 
through at least Tuesday night...maintaining light NE winds across the 
waters. Could go variable for a time on Wednesday as the weakening 
high is pinched overhead...and a weakening cold front approaches 
from the northwest. Seas will lay down early in the period...and maintain 
2-3 feet Tue-Wed. 


&& 


Ilm watches/warnings/advisories... 
SC...none. 
NC...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for amz250-252-254- 
256. 


&& 


$$ 


Near term...shk 
short term...Hawkins 
long term...mbb 
aviation...mrr