Weather

993 
fxus62 kmhx 280158 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
958 PM EDT Wednesday Aug 27 2008 


Synopsis... 
a front with tropical moisture will move slowly back north across 
the region tonight and Thursday as the remnants of Fay pass by to 
the west and northwest. A lingering area of weak low pressure will 
remain across North Carolina Friday and Saturday and produce 
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. A cold 
front will cross the region Sunday. High pressure from the north will 
build over the state on Monday through Wednesday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/... 
family of supercellular thunderstorms moved north through Duplin County this 
evening producing multiple funnel cloud reports and possible 
tornado near Rose Hill. Activity has weakened significantly in the 
past hour and suspect severe weather threat will be minimal 
overnight as boundary layer continues to stabilize. 


Update sent mainly to refresh near term grids. Still expecting 
good chance/likely probability of precipitation overnight as moisture feeds into eastern NC 
ahead middle level trough moving through western Carolinas. Showers already 
lining up offshore and expect this activity will gradually move 
onshore overnight. Should also see precipitation coverage increasg inland associated 
with approaching middle level trough. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Friday night/... 
the warm front lifts north of the region Thursday while a trough of low 
pressure remains across the coastal plain through Friday. Deep moisture 
will lift NE of the region Thursday but the trough along with weak 
divergence aloft and an upper trough slowly sliding eastward across 
the region will support a chance of showers through the short 
term...especially during peak heating times. More sunshine will 
bring warmer temperatures with highs in the M/u 80s while high dewpoints 
will keep min temperatures in the u60s to l70s. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/... 
a more substantial front will form over the middle Atlantic Saturday 
and is prognosticated to push S across the region Sunday. Shower and 
thunderstorm chances will continue ahead of the front with drier 
conditions moving into the region late Sunday as the front pushes 
S of the region. An amplified pattern will develop early next week 
with a ridge to the west of the region and a trough off the East 
Coast which will develop a blocking pattern keeping dry conditions 
across the region trough the middle of next week. Temperatures are 
expected to be near climatology through the extended. 


&& 


Aviation /02z Thursday through Monday/... 
IFR likely overnight at all area terminals. Widespread showers and 
thunderstorms earlier today have left plenty of moisture in place. 
Southeast flow will keep moisture flowing into the area overnight. 


Mix of IFR/MVFR likely again Thursday night with stratus and fog. VFR 
prevailing most of rest of period. Best chance of convective activity 
will be along and ahead of front late Sat and Sat night. High pressure 
drys things our sun and Monday. 


&& 


Marine... 
latest coastal/buoy observation match up well with forecast. No changes 
needed this evening. 


Observation indicate winds have veered to southeast up to Outer Banks S of 
Oregon Inlet this afternoon with weak boundary trying to move north. GFS 
now appears to have best handle on situation...supported by sref 
and European model (ecmwf)...and followed it through forecast period. Inverted surface 
troffing will develop SW to NE over eastern NC tonight through early 
Friday...allowing boundary to lift north over area...and winds veering to 
southeast to S all waters by late Friday. Tighest pressure gradient and strongest 
winds will be over northern waters Thursday and Thursday night but speeds still 
around 15 kts and seas up to 5 feet. Boundary will weaken and winds 
diminish Friday night and Sat as front approaches from northwest. Front will 
move through Sat night and early sun. Main cold air advection NE surge will be 
late Sun night and early Monday but limited to around 15 kts. 


Ww3 followed for seas but capped northern waters at 5 feet late Thursday and Thursday 
night. 


Rip currents... 
southeast swell around 11 seconds combined with light to moderate onshore 
flow and a high astronomical tide cycle will bring a moderate risk 
of rip currents along all beaches again on Thursday. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...sk 
near term...btc/sk 
short term...sk 
long term...sk 
aviation...jbm/hsa 
marine...jbm/hsa