Weather

592 
fxus62 kmhx 131414 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
1014 am EDT Monday Oct 13 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will build over the area through Wednesday then slide south 
of the region Thursday. A cold front will approach from the west Thursday night 
and cross the area Friday. High pressure will build in from the 
northwest Sat into sun. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
pleasant day on tap with high pressure dominating. 12z kmhx sounding 
shows a strong subsidence inversion around 880 mb which will 
contribute to warmer than normal temperatures this afternoon. Surface based 
inversion will fully mix out this afternoon which will allow temperatures 
to climb into the upper 70s and low 80s inland with middle/upper 70s 
along the beaches and Outer Banks. Skies will be mostly clear but 
some scattered high clouds rounding the ridge to the north will move in 
across northern sections this afternoon but will have little 
affect on temperatures. Winds will remain light northeasterly through the 
afternoon then decouple over inland areas by evening. Made minimal 
tweaks to T/dew point grids this update to follow trends otherwise no 
other changes needed. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday night/... 
core of upper ridge will move slowly S just to the west of the region Tuesday 
and Wednesday. This will keep atms dry with mclr skies. Daytime highs will 
be very mild and may approach record levels by Wednesday. Expect highs Tuesday 
low to middle 80s inland and will likely see middle to upper 80s on Wednesday. 
Near shore water temperatures mainly in the lower 70s will keep beaches 
cooler espcly northern tier Tuesday as winds will remain onshore. Shld 
continue to see good radiational cooling Tuesday night with high pressure near 
producing light winds...lows will range from low to middle 50s inland 
to lower 60s beaches. Wednesday night will be a little milder with upper 
50s to around 60 inland with middle to upper 60s CST. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday through Sunday/... 
followed HPC in extended period. Upper ridge breaks down on Thursday as 
short wave lifts NE across the Ohio Valley and middle Atlantic. Another short wave 
dives southeast across the northern plains into the Ohio Valley on 
Friday...deepening a trough across the eastern Seaboard Friday/Sat 
before lifting NE on sun. A cold front will move across the area 
on fir with models continuing to hint at a possible coastal 
trough/low developing Friday night/Sat time frame. Have raised probability of precipitation 
to chance Friday through Sat then dry on sun as high pressure builds 
into the area. Temperatures will be warm on Thursday with possible record 
highs as latest model guidance suggests temperatures near 90 degrees 
over inland areas. Much drier Sat and sun with near seasonal 
temperatures expected. 


&& 


Aviation /14z Monday through Friday/... 
lingering MVFR visibilities at kpgv should improve to VFR shortly with 
heating. Expecting VFR through the day with a light northeast wind. 
High pressure will be centered over the southeast for much of this 
week with light winds and VFR conditions. Will evaluate tonites fog 
potential with 18z tafs with excellent radiational cooling 
conditions anticipated. Next chance of rain will come late in the 
week as a cold front moves south through the area. 


&& 


Marine... 
bumped up very near term winds a category southern waters with the Onslow 
Bay buoys still showing 15-20kt...but still expect winds to relax as we 
move through the day/evening with the high nearing from the W/NW. 
Seas 3-5ft north and 4-6ft south will also back down a couple feet by 
late day in response. Allowed Small Craft Advisory in northern waters to 
expire with observation up there already coming down...and kept headlines as 
is elsewhere. 


Previous discussion... 
00z models in much better agreement this morning than they were 24 
hours ago. High pressure will build into the Carolinas today and 
will be in control across the southeast for most of the week. Tight 
pressure gradient will loosen today. The resulting decrease in winds 
will allow seas to subside. Light winds and seas will be the rule 
for most of the week. Current ending times for the small craft 
advisories now in effect still look good so made no adjustments 
there. 




&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for amz154- 
156-158. 
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for amz152. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...rf 
near term...jw 
short term...rf 
long term...rf 
aviation...hsa 
marine...hsa