Weather

348 
fxus61 kmhx 061003 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
500 am EST Tuesday Jan 6 2009 


Synopsis... 
a front will remain stalled across the region today...then lift 
north as a warm front this evening. A strong cold front will 
move through from the west late Wednesday followed by a secondary 
cold front late Thursday. High pressure will build in from the 
west Friday...then move offshore Saturday. A weak cold front will 
move across the region Saturday night. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
the cold front has moved into the region overnight and remains 
nearly stationary along a line from near Greenville to Oregon 
Inlet early this morning. Models not bringing the front much 
farther S this morning and not expecting it to push S of a 
Hatteras to Kinston line. Rainfall will continue to spread over 
the region as a strong low level jet enhances isentropic lift and abundant 
moisture lifts into the region from SC. Will maintain categorical 
probability of precipitation this morning as radar trends suggest measurable precipitation will 
impact all zones. The front will begin to slowly lift north this 
afternoon as attendant low pressure deeps as it lifts into the Ohio 
River valley in response to a deep upper trough moving into the 
Midwest. Expect rain to taper off from S to north this afternoon as 
best forcing and moisture lifts north of the region. Followed HPC/GFS 
blend for quantitative precipitation forecast...greatest totals expected north of the front where 
around 1/2 to 1" expected with southern sections receiving 
1/4-1/2". Temperatures will be the trickiest part of the forecast today. 
Temperatures early this morning in the u40s north of the Albemarle Sound and 
l50s northern portion of the County Warning Area while around 60 southern sections. Not 
expecting temperatures to rise much north of the front until it starts to 
lift north late this afternoon and highs here likely in the 
M/u50s...but southern section will likely climb to near 70s this 
afternoon after the precipitation ends and warm air advection strengthens. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday night/... 
the warm front will lift north of the region this evening with rain 
tapering off and expect most locations to remain dry for most of 
tonight. Temperatures continue to be tricky tonight and will likely see min 
temperatures early in the evening north of the front...mainly in the 
m50s...but then rise into the l60s after midnight as southerly flow 
increases. S of the front min temperatures will only fall to around 
60...and also rise some after midnight. A cold front will approach 
from the west Wednesday with showers likely in the morning across the 
coastal plain...then will spread across the rest of the region Wednesday 
afternoon. Strong southerly flow will continue ahead of the front with a 
50-60 knots low level jet at 925mb during the morning but drops off to 30-40 knots 
from west to east in the afternoon as a 925 mb trough moves across eastern NC. 
Still uncertainty in how much mixing will occur during the day and 
the best mixing may not coincide with strongest winds aloft. 
Additionally...the cooler nearshore and sound waters may limit 
mixing across coastal sections even during the afternoon. Strong 
southerly flow will bring temperatures will above normal again with highs in 
the u60s to around 70 Wednesday ahead of the front. The cold front 
pushes offshore late Wednesday afternoon with showers ending early in 
the evening. Strong cold air advection develops Wednesday night with temperatures falling into 
the l/m40s Wednesday night. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday through Monday/... 
the upper trough axis pushes across the region Thursday and Thursday night 
with a secondary cold front will move across the region Thursday 
afternoon bringing reinforcing cold air advection. Steep lapse rates in vicinity of the 
upper trough could initiate isolated showers Thursday afternoon but 
moisture is limited and model not producing any quantitative precipitation forecast at this time 
and will leave a dry forecast. Strong westerly winds with good mixing 
though and could see gust around 25-30 miles per hour Thursday afternoon. High 
pressure builds into the region Thursday night and Friday bringing dry 
conditions and slightly below normal temperatures. The high slides 
offshore Sat with southerly return flow developing ahead of the next 
cold front. Still some uncertainly in timing of the front moving 
across the region Sat night or Sun morning. High pressure stretching 
across the gom will limit moisture transport into the region and 
expect only light quantitative precipitation forecast amounts. Slightly above normal temperatures 
expected Sat with near normal to slightly below normal temperatures sun 
and Monday with high pressure building in from the west. 


&& 


Aviation /09z Tuesday through Saturday/... 
mixed bag across area this morning with Post-frontal IFR conditions 
at pgv and isolated...while VFR in warm sector at ewn and oaj. Large rain 
shield will keep IFR inland through the morning and result in 
decrease to MVFR at ewn and oaj. Precipitation and front will lift north late 
today into this evening...with conditions expected to improve to VFR for 
overnight. 


Period of MVFR likely Wednesday with rain showers assctd with strong cold moving 
through...then VFR prevailing Fri-Sat. 


&& 


Marine... 
GFS/NAM blend used into Friday...little change for Sat. Backdoor front 
has stalled near hat and will remain nearly stationary this 
morning...then lift north late today into this evening as low pressure moves 
into Ohio Valley and New England. Models agree on increasing pressure gradient 
along coast late today into tonight but model winds speeds likely 
overdone due to limited mixing over cooler water. However enough 
potential for frequent gusts to Post Small Craft Advisory all waters tonight...and 
gale watch for coastal waters S of Oregon Inlet Wednesday-Thursday with gusty 
pre- and Post-frontal winds to near gale force mainly over outer 
waters. Conditions improving Friday and Friday night...but then SW winds 
increase again ahead of another cold front Sat. 


Ww3 a little quick to build higher seas southern and central waters this 
afternoon...but then looked good rest of period. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 am EST 
Friday for amz135. 
Small Craft Advisory from 1 am Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday 
for amz130. 
Gale watch from Wednesday morning through late Thursday night 
for amz152-154. 
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 am EST 
Wednesday for amz152-154-156-158. 
Gale watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for 
amz156-158. 
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST 
Friday for amz150. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...sk 
near term...sk 
short term...sk 
long term...sk 
aviation...jbm 
marine...jbm 

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations

Non-Expanded Version (with abbreviations)