Weather

620 
fxus62 kmhx 070813 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
413 am EDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
a weak trough of low pressure will continue over the region today 
through Monday. A cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday and 
cross the region Wednesday. The front will stall S of the area Thursday and 
Friday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
the atmosphere will remain quite moist in the wake of Hanna with 
surface dewpoints mainly above 70. With highs temperatures in the upper 80s to 
lower 90s will see weak to moderate instability and expect isolated 
convection mainly just inland from the coast this afternoon along weak 
trf and sea breeze. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/... 
little change in airmass this period with middle/upper level ridge continue over 
or just S of area. This will limit forcing for precipitation and expect 
only isolated activity Monday afternoon that will linger into Monday night. Will 
remain muggy with lows mainly 70 to 75 and highs Monday continue in the 
upper 80s to around 90. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/... 
cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday and cross the area Wednesday 
before stalling just to the S. This front will be focus for rain showers 
and thunderstorms and rain with chance probability of precipitation expected Tuesday through most of the rest of 
the week. At this point the best covering of precipitation across the region 
would be Wednesday as the front crosses with lots of moisture along and 
behind the front. Later in the week the best covering of precipitation 
expected to over southern tier closer to the stalled front. Temperatures will 
be cooler middle week with front to the S and plenty of 
clouds...highs will be mainly in the lower 80s. Late in the week 
as heights slowly increase and front washes out to the S will see 
temperatures climb back into the middle to upper 80s. 


&& 


Aviation /07z Sunday through Thursday/... 
boundary layer remains very moist with dewpoints in the low to middle 
70s across the terminals. Starting to see some reduced visibilities over 
the area and will keep IFR conditions in terminals between 09z- 
12z then VFR expected the rest of the day with some scattered cumulus 
developing during the afternoon hours. Light SW winds at or below 5 knots 
expected for the balance of the day as weak surface boundary remains 
draped over the area. Weak surface high will reside over the area 
tonight with winds decoupling. MOS guidance is indicating LIFR 
visibilities developing tonight and feel this fairly confident that the 
terminals will see a fair amount of fog overnight with the high 
overhead and slightly cooler temperatures expected. 


Mainly VFR expected Monday through Wednesday but a cold front will move 
across the terminals Tuesday night and early Wednesday with periods of 
MVFR conditions possible. 


&& 


Marine... 
SW winds at or below 15 knots prevail over area waters early this morning 
with seas slowly subsiding. Diamond buoy is reporting 9 feet/13s as 
of 3 am with mainly 4 to 6 feet occurring elsewhere. Will continue 
the Small Craft Advisory for all waters through 15z then drop it for waters north 
of Oregon Inlet and south of Cape Lookout as seas subside below 
6 feet. Hurricane version of wavewatch keeps 6 feet seas over the 
central waters through at least the overnight hours and given 
decent performance will keep the advisory going until 12z Monday from 
lookout to Oregon Inlet. Long period swell from major Hurricane 
Ike is starting to show up over southern waters and this energy 
combined with lingering swell from distant Hannah should result in 
high surf conditions with 6 to 8 feet breakers possible along area 
beaches especially over the Outer Banks. Will continue the high 
surf advisory for all beaches today but day shift may need to drop 
portions of the advisory over southern and northern waters. 


A cold front is forecast to move across the waters Tuesday night 
and early Wednesday. May see enough of a surge behind the front to 
result in a period of small craft seas mainly over northern 
waters. 


Rip currents... 
will continue with a high threat of rip currents all beaches today 
given continuation of long period swell energy and the day after 
effect. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...high surf advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ncz095-098- 
103-104. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT Monday for amz152-154-156. 
Small Craft Advisory until 11 am EDT this morning for amz150- 
158. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...rf 
near term...rf 
short term...rf 
long term...rf 
aviation...jw 
marine...jw