Weather

018 
fxus61 krnk 131352 
afdrnk 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Blacksburg Virginia 
952 am EDT Monday Oct 13 2008 


Synopsis... 
a large high pressure system will build south into the middle 
Atlantic region today and will remain over the area through 
Tuesday. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
strong surface high is centered directly over the region this morning. 
High clouds spilling over the upper ridge will dim the sun on 
occasion today...otherwise a sunny...dry day is in store with warm 
temperatures and light winds. 


&& 


Short term /Tuesday through Thursday night/... 
large high will be over the forecast area through Wednesday while 
the upper ridge at 500 mb gradually shifts into the southern 
United States. By Wednesday night the upper ridge and flattened 
and the flow at the surface and 850 mb is out of the northwest. 
Models have the surface trough east of the forecast area by Friday 
morning. 


Very little change needed to the forecast through Thursday. Only 
minor adjustments to the maximum and minimum temperatures this time 
frame. Will continue to highlight unseasonably warm temperatures 
today and Tuesday. 


Subsidence inversion will prevent deep mixing and low dew points 
this afternoon...and should allow low clouds to reform in the far 
southwest again overnight...but with much lighter southeast 
winds...clouds may not even get into Virginia. 


&& 


Long term /Friday through Sunday/... 
as the chance of rain moves east...probability will decrease and 
likely redevelop east and along the Virginia/NC border near Southside Virginia 
during Thursday evening. This rain will be slow to move to the 
coast in zonal flow and clouds may linger through much of Friday. 
Depending on the model of chose...this boundary may stall near or 
over the area Friday and/or Saturday. If so...a wave will likely 
develop along the boundary and reintroduce rain back into the area 
Friday and/or Saturday. 


&& 


Aviation /14z Monday through Friday/... 
high pressure over New York will move southeast today. Upper low 
center over Georgia and northern Florida will move westward. 


The dry airmass across our area will limit fog in the mountain river 
valleys. Considering that similar conditions exist at lwb at this time 
compared to Sunday morning...IFR visibilities are not expected to 
develop. 


The tranquil weather under high pressure will continue through 
Wednesday...and there may again be River Valley fog...possibly no 
worse than MVFR at klwb...Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. 


A cold front is expected to move into the region Thursday...then 
stall across North Carolina. A wave of low pressure will then move 
up along the stalled front on Friday. There should be a few showers 
with the front on Thursday...which could bring MVFR conditions. 
Showers may be more widespread on Friday...with a potential for 
IFR to MVFR conditions. 


&& 


Climate... 
Oct 13 record highs 
roa 89 in 1954 
lyh 89 in 1954 
Dan 92 in 1954 
blf 81 in 1969 
rnk 83 in 1954 


Oct 14 record highs 
roa 86 in 1941 
lyh 85 in 1985 
Dan 86 in 1954 
blf 81 in 1989 
rnk 84 in 1962 


&& 


Rnk watches/warnings/advisories... 
Virginia...none. 
NC...none. 
WV...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...air mass 
near term...ams/js 
short term...air mass 
long term...rcs 
aviation...ams/kk 
climate...