Weather

851 
fxus65 kbyz 281519 
afdbyz 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Billings Montana 
919 am MDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Short term...valid for today and Friday... 


Dry and brisk west to northwest flow aloft over region today will 
result in mostly sunny conditions and temperatures near or around 
normal. Breezy surface winds will spread across area earlier than 
they did yesterday...but not be quite as strong. Forecast in good 
shape...just did a minor update for a few cosmetic changes. Bt 




Long term...valid for Sat...sun...Mon...Tue...Wed... 


Continued to make changes to the forecast towards the much wetter 
and colder period Sunday through Tuesday. Still some minor 
differences in the fine details but overall there is good 
agreement. 


Saturday still looks to be the warmest day in the extended ahead 
of the strong cold front. Temperatures will warm in the middle to 
upper 90s across the central and eastern zones with upper 80s to 
lower 90s across the west. Initial cold front will move through 
the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning bringing the 
first punch of cooler air to the area. Fairly wide temperature 
differences can be expected on Sunday with 60s across the west to 
80s across the far east. Upper level low pressure system digs 
along the Pacific coast on Sunday and slowly shifts east through 
the day. First push of energy ejecting out ahead of the low will 
bring scattered showers to the western zones during the day 
Sunday. Stronger energy is ejected across the area Sunday night 
into Monday bringing increasing chances of precipitation mainly 
to the central and western zones through Monday afternoon. 
Stronger push of cold air comes into the area Sunday night into 
Monday as strong surface low develops over the western Dakotas 
will help draw in colder air from Canada. High temperatures on 
Monday look to be in the 50s across the central and western zones 
with lower 60s across the east at this time. Temperatures could 
be much cooler than this depending on how much precipitation sets 
up over the area. For now...continued dropping temperatures 
gradually until the finer details get worked out closer to the 
event. 


As the low pressure system shifts east it tries to close off an 
upper low over northern Wyoming and southern Montana by Monday 
night. This will bring the best chances for precipitation to the 
eastern zones into Tuesday morning. Temperatures still look cool 
on Tuesday with highs in the 60s across the western and central 
zones with 50s possible across the east. System looks to exit the 
area by Tuesday night. However...as mentioned before there is 
still some slight differences in the models as the latest European model (ecmwf) 
tries to bring the closed off low much farther north into 
northern Montana as the system kicks out. Will not buy into that 
solution at this time as this is the first time it has showed 
this. 


There is the potential for accumulation snow at the higher 
elevations during these several days of cooler weather. At this 
time it is hard to say how much snow will fall in the mountains 
but does look like they will see some accumulations. 


Some weak upper level ridging builds in for Wednesday bringing 
some warmer temperatures to the area and also dryer conditions. 
Models hinting at another system for Thursday and Friday of next 
week. Still a lot of disagreement at this time on this system but 
did add in some slight chance probability of precipitation just to get some sort of 
precipitation mentioned. Solum 


&& 


Aviation... 


Gusty winds can be expected once again today although not as 
strong as the past few days. Otherwise...VFR conditions will 
prevail throughout the day. Solum 


&& 


Preliminary point temp/pops... 


Today Friday Sat sun Monday Tuesday Wednesday 
------------------------------------------------------- 
bil 079 056/084 057/093 059/072 046/054 042/064 047/076 
0/u 00/u 00/u 22/T 66/west 53/r 00/u 
lvm 079 049/087 049/087 052/068 041/053 036/066 045/073 
0/north 00/u 00/u 23/T 65/west 41/u 00/u 
hdn 080 053/086 053/096 058/076 047/059 043/065 045/078 
0/u 00/u 00/u 02/T 56/west 53/r 00/u 
mls 080 055/084 059/096 061/080 050/061 045/061 048/075 
0/u 00/u 00/u 02/T 44/west 53/r 00/u 
4bq 078 054/084 057/095 061/082 051/062 044/060 046/076 
0/u 00/u 00/u 02/T 34/west 54/r 00/u 
bhk 075 049/081 055/095 059/085 047/063 042/058 044/073 
0/u 00/u 00/u 02/T 34/west 54/r 00/u 
shr 081 048/085 050/092 054/077 047/058 041/062 043/074 
0/u 00/u 00/u 02/T 46/west 53/r 00/b 


&& 


Byz watches/warnings/advisories... 
Montana...none. 
Wyoming...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Weather.Gov/Billings