Weather

162 
fxus65 ktfx 102059 
afdtfx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Great Falls Montana 
259 PM MDT Friday Oct 10 2008 


Discussion... 


Tonight through Sunday...early season winter storm will continue 
to impact southwest Montana and southern portions of central 
Montana. However...most of north central Montana remains beneath 
partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with only a slight chance to 
chance of snow expected during the short term period. The deep 
upper level low will continue to spin over the Great Basin through 
Saturday then will finally begin to lift out to the northeast 
Saturday night and Sunday. As the low lifts out...precipitation 
will begin to taper off in southwest Montana. At the same time a 
combination of strong upper level forcing and low level 
frontogenesis will cause a significant band of precipitation 
across eastern portions of my County Warning Area. Have opted to add Blaine County 
to the Winter Storm Warning for the period of Saturday night 
through early Monday morning...and have also extended Fergus 
County out overnight on Sunday as well. Mpj 


Sunday night through Wednesday night...a deep...upper level low 
pressure system will continue to move slowly east...moving across 
the Montana/Dakota border Sunday night. High pressure will build 
aloft over the zones and the the airmass will begin a drying and 
warming trend that will last into Tuesday. An upper level low 
pressure trough will cross The Rockies early Wednesday. This will be a 
rather fast-moving system and the chance of precipitation will 
remain low. However...breezy conditions will remain over the area 
until this short wave moves into eastern Montana. The warming trend 
will also be interrupted until another high pressure ridge begins to 
build over the area on Thursday. Zelzer 


Thursday and Friday...a disturbance in a northwest flow moves east 
out of the zones Thursday allowing high pressure to build in from 
the west. A zonal flow sets up ahead of the next Pacific system by 
Friday. Saucier 


&& 


Aviation... 
updated 1750z. 
A deep upper level low pressure trough will remain over the area 
through Saturday keeping the airmass cool and moist. Periods of snow 
and low ceilings will cause areas of MVFR conditions across southwest 
Montana and portions of north central Montana. VFR conditions will 
prevail over much of north central Montana and the Canadian border 
with periods of MVFR conditions with snow showers and fog. Surface 
flow will generally remain northeast and brisk. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
gtf 25 34 22 35 / 30 40 50 30 
ctb 21 35 19 40 / 20 20 20 10 
hln 29 36 27 37 / 60 60 50 50 
bzn 26 37 25 34 / 80 80 80 70 
wey 19 30 18 27 / 90 80 90 60 
dln 21 30 18 31 / 90 70 80 50 
hvr 24 41 21 38 / 20 20 20 30 
lwt 23 31 19 29 / 70 80 80 90 


&& 


Tfx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Winter Storm Warning continues until 6 PM MDT Sunday for 
mtz008-012-014- 015-050-052>055. 


Winter Storm Warning continues until 6 am MDT Monday for mtz051. 


Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Saturday to 6 am MDT Monday for 
mtz047. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term...mpj 
long term...zelzer/Saucier 
aviation...loss 


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