Weather

778 
fxus64 kjan 282023 
afdjan 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson MS 
320 PM CDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Discussion... 


For remainder of the afternoon and early evening... 


Two active convective areas...one over NC/NE MS and another over NE 
la/SW should continue into the early evening. Greatest surface based 
instability (> 4000 j/kg) and some microburst potential (modified 
12z lix sounding) remains over NE/SW MS and will keep mention of 
strong storms going in severe weather potential statement...but expect a quick end to convection 
early this evening. 


For tonight through Saturday night...typical late August 
heat/humidity are expected with weather quiet for the most part as 
ridging aloft maintains control. Some shortwave energy rotating southeast 
around the ridge will attempt to move into the lower MS valley 
region late Friday night/Saturday with associated convection. Given that 
middle level heights will remain high...the environment will be harsh 
for getting much thunderstorm activity and will stick with the low guidance 
probability of precipitation for now. Otherwise hot and humid afternoon conditions will 
prevail. /Ec/ 


Valid portions of previous long term discussion for Sunday and 
beyond follow... 


All eyes will continue to be on Tropical Storm Gustav for early next 
week. The official track from the National Hurricane Center 
strengthens Gustav to a hurricane before bringing it through the 
Yucatan Channel and into the Gulf of Mexico...and eventually toward 
the north central Gulf Coast. Models seem to be coming into better 
agreement with this track. As it reaches this area the movement 
should become rather slow as it interacts with weak steering 
winds...which should mean continued rain chances for a few days over 
the arklamiss region if this current track holds true. As a result 
have followed the previous forecasters thinking and raised probability of precipitation for 
the Monday through Wednesday timeframe. As more confidence is 
gained with this system probability of precipitation can be adjusted more accordingly. 
Regardless...as long as the storm does make landfall within The Cone 
of uncertainty...it should bring decent rains to the already wet 
arklamiss region. This could pose another round of flooding 
problems to the arklamiss region. A track further to the east would 
still bring rain to the County warning forecast area...while the current track or a track 
further to the west would bring decent rains in addition to other 
hazards. This will be discussed further as more confidence is 
gained in the track and affects on the County warning forecast area. For the severe weather potential statement will 
continue to give a brief mention of Gustav possibly affecting the 
County warning forecast area...but will not go into many details at this point until more 
confidence is gained. 


The main changes made to temperatures through the long term were to 
lower highs in the south for the Monday-Wednesday timeframe. With the current 
forecast track of Gustav...there will likely be plenty of clouds and 
rain around to keep temperatures across this region down. Otherwise 
pretty much stuck with gui through the remainder of the extended for 
temperatures. /14/ 


&& 


Aviation...from 18-00z a few showers/thunderstorms developed around the 
area early in the afternoon over the east and may impact 
gwo/gtr/mei. Added vcsh everywhere but glh for now...but showers 
were increasing in coverage. Not looking for much thunder 
development any of the sites...although a few thunderstorms may 
develop near hez and tvr. VFR conditions will prevail at most sites 
from 00-06z. Patchy fog may develop in the usual locations...mei/hbg 
and maybe gwo. From 6-9z will maintain MVFR conditions at all sites. 
Will go with worsening conditions in tempo groups for mei/hbg where 
IFR conditions may develop briefly before sunrise. Looking for fog 
to be clear at all sites by 15z and VFR conditions should continue 
through the rest of the period. A boundary will approach the area 
Friday evening...so rain may move into then north around 6z. /07/ 


&& 


Jan watches/warnings/advisories... 
MS...none. 
La...none. 
Arkansas...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Ec/07/14