Weather

884 
fxus64 kjan 071512 aaa 
afdjan 


Area forecast discussion...update 
National Weather Service Jackson MS 
1015 am CDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Update...lower clouds associated with the remnants of weak 
near-surface trough are affecting locations in the forecast area 
south of Interstate twenty this morning. Otherwise...patchy fog 
across the rest of the region has just recently dispersed with only 
a few high clouds streaming overhead. As the day progresses expect 
only a bit of cirrus and a few fair weather cumulus clouds...except 
in areas of NE la and southern MS south of I-20 where daytime 
cumulus clouds will be a little more numerous. Plenty of sun will 
let the Mercury climb as we go into the afternoon...but most highs 
should still remain just shy of the 90 degree mark. Previous 
forecast for today looked good on temperatures and only minor tweaks 
made to cloud cover and to account for current trends of other 
parameters. Updated grids and zones for the first period out the 
door. /Bb/ 


&& 


Discussion... 
short term...the weak low level trough and associated moisture will 
stay just offshore today...leaving the forecast dry. Temperatures 
will be a little more challenging today considering the cooler and 
drier air mas currently in place. MOS numbers...which are generally 
the low ensemble member for today...warm highs back into the upper 
80s across the region. Soundings show a warm layer around 850 mb and 
model confidence is running slightly above normal so will follow MOS 
for this afternoon. 


Moisture forecast to increase tomorrow when a weak wave moves 
through. Moisture will remain limited in spite of healthy chance 
probability of precipitation for southwestern zones tomorrow. Will slightly undercut probability of precipitation to leave 
slight chance southern zones...leaning more toward the average ensemble 
members. /03/ 


Longer term...(monday night through sunday) medium range models 
show diurnal convection in flat ridging over the area. A weak 
boundary will push into the region on Tuesday and will help provide 
some convergence for diurnal convection. The boundary will wash out 
on Wednesday. Daily temperatures for Tuesday through Thursday will push 
into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Went close to MOS guidance on daily 
highs. Nightly lows through Thursday morning will be from the middle 
60s to the lower 70s...which is close to MOS guidance. 


The next item of concern is the uncertainty of the track of Ike 
into the Gulf region. Models vary from the northeast Gulf to south 
Texas...while the GFS/European try to bring it across southeast 
Texas...then lift the system northeast across the northwest Delta 
Region. The latest forecast from NHC brings Hurricane Ike south of 
Florida into the southeast Gulf of Mexico next Tuesday or Wednesday. 
The affects of this system will be closely monitored. Otherwise made 
some slight adjustments to GFS numbers since GFS tries to bring the 
remnants into the Delta Region after the long term period. /17/ 


&& 


Aviation...fog and stratus has burned off this morning and VFR 
conditions are expected for the remainder of the day and through 
most of tonight. The lingering boundary and moisture responsible for 
the recent stratus/fog episodes continue to become more diffuse as 
weak high pressure builds over the area. Would expect fog/stratus 
early Monday morning to be a lesser concern for aviation 
interests...but could still see some MVFR/IFR restrictions on 
occasion from 09-14z Monday. /Ec/ 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Jackson 88 63 90 67 / 0 3 12 20 
Meridian 88 63 91 66 / 1 3 11 20 
Vicksburg 89 64 92 66 / 0 2 14 20 
Hattiesburg 89 67 92 69 / 4 3 18 13 
Natchez 86 66 89 68 / 2 2 24 17 
Greenville 89 63 92 66 / 0 3 8 21 
Greenwood 89 63 92 67 / 0 2 6 20 


&& 


Jan watches/warnings/advisories... 
MS...none. 
La...none. 
Arkansas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Bb/ec