Weather

548 
fxus64 kjan 071013 
afdjan 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson MS 
513 am CDT Tuesday Oct 7 2008 


Short term...deeper moisture is being advected into the region today. 
Precipitable water values were running above 2 inches at Slidell at 
00z/07 and above 1.5 inches to the west and southwest. A wave that 
lifted northeastward across the arklamiss late ydy/overnight helped to focus 
convection with one or two severe storms east of I-55 early this 
morning. Rainfall has persisted just upstream across Arkansas 
tonight...showing very slow eastward movement as the stronger activity 
lifts north of the area. The cold front will move near the MS river 
around 00z/08...maintaining good rain chances across the area. With 
such deep moisture in place...periods of heavy rainfall will occur 
in stronger storms. The better low level jet and associated shear 
will be in place this morning but is forecast to weaken this 
afternoon when 850 mb veers slightly more westerly. Rain chances will 
continue tonight when the cold front tracks through the region. Probability of precipitation 
will decrease from the west late in the wake of the front. 


Long term...Wednesday through Tuesday. Stuck with guidance again 
today. The GFS continues to dry the area out...hopefully the forecast 
will not flip flop. Pop values dropped from 60 percent to 10 percent 
for the northwest portions of the County Warning Area for the weekend. Considered using a 
blend and maintaining low chance values just in case the system 
speeds up. However...the European keeps the area dry after Wednesday. 
It has been consistently dry for the past few runs. Took rain out of 
the forecast for the remainder of the period. Used a blend of 
guidance and climatology for temperatures. Raised highs and lows nearly 
everyday. 


The boundary will be east of the area by Wednesday afternoon...with 
a few showers and thunderstorms lingering over the eastern zones. 
The upper trough will move everything out of the area...quickly 
followed by cool and dry air. A surface high will pass through the 
region Thursday and Friday. By Saturday...an upper level ridge will build 
over the east/southeast states and help keep moisture and rain to the 
west. The ridge seems to hold through early next week. Return flow by 
the weekend will warm things up...highs may approach 90 Sunday. Beyond the 
forecast period...the models now suggest the next cold front will 
move into the area around Wednesday. Guidance showed some very small 
rain chances...being day 6 and 7 opted to keep the area dry. Will 
leave the severe weather potential statement clear for the extended. 


&& 


Aviation... 
widespread MVFR ceilings will occur across the region today. Areas of 
IFR ceilings and MVFR fog can be expected during the early morning. Fog 
will clear soon after sunrise and IFR ceilings will lift at most 
locations. Occasional showers and thunderstorms will continue with 
periods of frequent lightning and heavy rainfall. Isolated episodes 
of damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and large hail will be possible 
in stronger storms. 






&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Jackson 83 60 78 57 / 75 44 7 0 
Meridian 79 62 79 55 / 84 60 21 0 
Vicksburg 84 59 79 54 / 62 28 3 1 
Hattiesburg 82 63 79 55 / 86 50 13 1 
Natchez 84 58 79 54 / 55 21 3 1 
Greenville 83 59 77 56 / 76 36 7 0 
Greenwood 78 59 77 56 / 84 54 12 0 


&& 


Jan watches/warnings/advisories... 
MS...none. 
La...none. 
Arkansas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


3/7